Today’s economic calendar brings key reports from Europe, Canada, and the U.S., which could impact EUR, CAD, and USD pairs. With inflation, GDP, and employment cost data in focus, expect potential volatility across the board. Let’s break it down so you can trade with clarity and confidence.

1. German Prelim CPI m/m (EUR – All Day)

Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.5% 

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a leading indicator of inflation in the Eurozone’s largest economy. The drop from 0.5% to 0.1% signals slower inflation, which could weigh on the euro.

What to Watch For:

• If the CPI print comes in higher than 0.1%, it could boost EUR as it suggests persistent inflation.
• If the number is lower than 0.1%, it might weaken EUR as it increases expectations for further ECB rate cuts.

Trading Tip:

• Since this release is spread throughout the day, the impact may be gradual rather than an immediate market-moving event.
• Keep an eye on EUR/USD and EUR/GBP for reactions.

2. Canadian GDP m/m (CAD – 8:30 AM)

Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3% 

Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to contract by -0.1%, following a previous growth of 0.3%. A negative print would raise concerns about economic slowdown, potentially pressuring CAD.

What to Watch For:

• If GDP is better than -0.1%, CAD could strengthen as it suggests resilience in the economy.
• If GDP falls below -0.1%, it could drive CAD lower as it increases the odds of future rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BOC).

Trading Tip:

• If trading USD/CAD, be cautious around the release, as GDP surprises can cause sharp, short-term moves.
• Oil prices could also impact CAD movements today, so watch WTI crude prices for additional clues.

3. U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD – 8:30 AM)

Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1% 

The Core PCE Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. An uptick from 0.1% to 0.2% suggests inflation remains sticky, which could influence Fed rate expectations.

What to Watch For:

• If PCE prints above 0.2%, it could push USD higher as it suggests inflationary pressures remain strong.
• If PCE comes in below 0.2%, USD could weaken as markets anticipate an easier Fed stance.

Trading Tip:

• Expect volatility in gold (XAU/USD), EUR/USD, and USD/JPY as traders adjust rate expectations.
• A stronger PCE print could weigh on stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

4. U.S. Employment Cost Index q/q (USD – 8:30 AM)

Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: 0.8% 

This report measures the cost of labor and is closely watched by the Fed. A rise from 0.8% to 0.9% suggests wage pressures remain a concern.

What to Watch For:

• A higher-than-expected print could boost USD as it signals continued wage-driven inflation.
• A weaker-than-expected print could weigh on USD, supporting expectations for future rate cuts.

Trading Tip:

• Watch USD pairs and gold for potential knee-jerk reactions.
• This release, combined with PCE data, could shape expectations for the next Fed meeting.

Final Thoughts: How to Trade These Events Smartly

• Expect volatility. GDP, inflation, and wage data are all key drivers for central bank policy.
• The market will react to surprises. If numbers deviate significantly from forecasts, expect sharp moves.
• Use proper risk management. Avoid overleveraging, especially with multiple data releases at the same time.
• Wait for confirmation. The first reaction isn’t always the real move—let the market settle before making big decisions.

With key inflation and GDP data on tap, today is a day for patience, discipline, and smart execution. Stay disciplined and trade with caution, and let the market guide your decisions.