Alright, traders, let’s cut the fluff. CNBC posted this article, which is great for information, but it doesn’t help traders, so I am going to write it my way, so you know what the hell is going on. The 10-year Treasury yield is ticking up, now at 4.35%. This is a warning shot for volatility across all asset classes.
Why the Move? Monday’s bump followed stronger-than-expected ISM services data. Translation: the economy is working, and the Fed, with its rate decision this Wednesday, isn’t likely to cut rates. Market’s pricing in a >98% chance the Fed doesn’t move rates, so the big action is in the statement, not the rate.
Volatility Hot Zones This Week
Bonds/Treasuries
The 10-year and 30-year yields: Watch these like a hawk. Any "surprise" from Jerome and crew will light up the bond markets.
Inverse ETFs or TLT puts could be in play for a whippy session.
USD
When yields climb, the dollar usually goes with it. Watch DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY. If Powell even sniffs at higher-for-longer, dollar longs could be the lay-up trade.
Equities
Higher yields keep pressure on tech and growth. Watch QQQ for sharp swings off the Fed headlines. If the market thinks rate cuts aren’t coming this year, expect a red day for the high-flyers.
Banks ( $XLF ( ▼ 0.64% ) ) can get crazy, higher yields are their fuel.
Gold & Crypto
Gold hates high yields (I hate gold). If Powell surprises hawkish, gold could dump below support levels, might be tasty for short-term puts or breakdown trades.
Bitcoin also gets shaky on macro headlines. Get ready for whipsaw moves, especially if the Fed surprises.
What to Watch for in the Fed Presser
Any talk about future economic weakness: Dovish = risk-on rally (watch for squeezes).
“Higher for longer” language: Hawkish = yields up, tech down, watch for sharp moves in rates-sensitive stocks.
Ignore Trump. That’s noise for the evening news, not timeframes shorter than a week.
Bottom Line This Fed meeting won’t give you a rate change, but the statement and Powell’s Q&A can spark fast, violent moves across bonds, USD, stocks, gold, and crypto. Don’t sleep on your stop-losses. Stay nimble, trade fast, and don’t worry about the macro “story” just follow the volatility.
Volatility is your paycheck. Make it count.