The energy market isn’t giving us a break this week. WTI opened the European session on the back foot, extending Thursday’s weakness and pressing deeper into its downtrend. Momentum is still heavy, sentiment is still shaky, and the chart is telling a very clear story.
Before anything else: WTI is trading at $58.11, down from Thursday’s close at $58.66 and Brent is also sliding, sitting at $62.16 after previously closing at $62.60.
The drawdown is broad, not isolated. Let’s break this down properly.
Here’s What You Need to Know:
1. WTI Is Still Respecting Its Downtrend
The descending trendline from July is still untouched. Every bounce gets sold, and today is no different. Price rejected the trendline again, keeping bears firmly in control.
2. Key Supports Are Getting Pressured
WTI is now hovering right above the $58 region, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and rejection this year. Price also remains below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, showing sellers are still in control.
If $58 gives way, the next major liquidity zone sits at $55.70, which is a big magnet for price during extended downtrends.
3. Fundamentals Are Leaning Bearish for Oil
Global demand expectations have been downgraded again as markets price in slower economic activity heading into year-end.
On top of that, U.S. inventories have shown larger-than-expected builds this week, adding extra weight on crude. When supply stacks up and demand softens, WTI naturally struggles to find bullish momentum, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
Slower global demand expectations, cautious risk sentiment, and reduced refinery activity are weighing on prices. Until macro shifts, upside catalysts are scarce.
My Takeaway
WTI remains a seller’s market, clean, simple, and unapologetic. Price is trending lower, rejecting resistance, and walking straight down the trendline. Until we break above $61.00 and reclaim the moving averages, any attempt to “bottom-pick” is just volunteering for punishment.
For now, the more realistic scenarios are:
Further downside into $56–55.70
Possible short-term bounces or rallies
Bears maintaining full control heading into next week
As a reminder always, trade what’s in front of you, not what you want to happen. Oil hasn’t flipped yet and today’s price action confirms it.