The market got two very different stories this week. ADP shouted slowdown, while the official NFP report whispered strength. If you’re wondering which one should we trust, you’re not alone.
June’s ADP report flashed a loss of 33,000 private jobs, a jarring miss, especially when paired with expectations for a gain. Yet on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a surprise: 147,000 new jobs and a dip in unemployment to 4.1%.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters:
1. NFP Beats, But It’s Not What It Seems
🚨BREAKING: US June #NFP higher than expected!
📈Nonfarm Payrolls 147K (est. 111K, prev. 144K)
📉 Private Nonfarm Payrolls 74K (est. 105K, prev. 173K)
📉 Unemployment rate 4.1% (est. 4.3%, prev. 4.2%)
📉 Average hourly earnings YoY 3.7% (est. 3.9%, prev.3.8 %)
📉Labor force— #MacroMicro (#@MacroMicroMe)
12:35 PM • Jul 3, 2025
On the surface, the NFP print looks solid, 147K jobs added versus 111K expected. But more than half of those came from government hiring. Strip that out and the private sector barely moved. That’s exactly what ADP showed. So while the reports seem to conflict, they might actually align beneath the surface.
2. Traders Didn’t Buy the Hype
The dollar perked up a bit after the NFP release, but it didn’t rally hard. Yields stayed soft, and September rate cut odds held firm around 70–75%. The market’s message? This isn’t a game-changer. The Fed might still cut, especially if private hiring is as flat as it looks.
3. The Labor Market Is Splitting
If you’re not in government, education, or healthcare, job growth is looking thin. That’s the real story buried under the headline. Cory Stahle from Indeed Hiring Lab nailed it: the June gains might “ring hollow” for most job seekers. It’s a tale of two job markets, and only one of them is growing.
4. ADP Isn’t Broken It’s Just Partial
Don’t throw ADP in the trash. Just know what you’re looking at. It tracks private payrolls only, and in months like this, that distinction matters. When government jobs carry the NFP, ADP can look wrong when it’s actually on point.
5. Volatility Risks Around Misreads
Traders jumping the gun on headline prints risk getting caught on the wrong side of the trade. When data diverges like this, algo-driven volatility spikes, and false breakouts become more common. Understanding the context behind these numbers can help avoid whipsaws and give you the edge.
Here’s the Takeaway:
If you’re a trader, this month’s split is a reminder: headlines don’t always tell the full story. ADP isn’t gospel, but neither is NFP when it’s propped up by public sector hiring. Look deeper, especially when the numbers don’t match. That’s where the real deal is hiding.
