There’s nothing flashy about this AUD/USD move, but it’s clean, controlled, and resilient. And for those of us who’ve traded this pair long enough, that’s exactly when you lean in.
After defending 0.6500 yet again, the Aussie is pressing right back into resistance near 0.6530. It’s not a moonshot, but the structure is bullish, the macro is cooperative, and the chart’s been quietly doing what it’s supposed to.
Let’s walk through why this level matters, why the market tone still leans risk-on, and how this setup could squeeze higher if conditions hold.
Here’s What’s Driving The Move:
1. 0.6500 Holds Again as Buyers Defend Trendline Support
The chart clearly shows 0.6500 tested multiple times with strong rejections (green arrows). The ascending trendline from April is clean, and price bounced right on it again.
2. US Dollar Fades as Yield Support Weakens
DXY is still holding around 99.00, and recent macro releases (like ISM and JOLTS) failed to push it higher. No breakout in bond yields supports this bearish USD tone, which is positive for AUD.
3. China CPI Misses, But Market Sees Room for Stimulus
May CPI came in at -0.1% YoY (vs. -0.2% expected), and PPI deeper at -3.3%. Market reaction has been tilted toward expectations of China stepping in with stimulus, something traders often price into AUD strength.
4. Aussie Sentiment Data Mixed, But Trade Optimism Helps
NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Confidence came in soft. But the optimism around U.S.–China talks (with mentions of easing chip restrictions) continues to support the pair indirectly.
🇦🇺 Consumer sentiment on the Westpac-MI index improves 0.5% in June, up nearly 11% on a year ago. Still, sentiment remains pessimistic, turning lower in the qtr amid tariff and market uncertainty.
— #James Foster (#@JFosterFM)
12:36 AM • Jun 10, 2025
5. Technicals Align for Possible Breakout
AUD/USD is trading just below 0.6537 (last week’s high). Price is above all major moving averages and the bullish structure is intact. Break above 0.6537 → room to run toward 0.6575 and possibly 0.6600.
Here’s the takeaway
This isn’t a headline grabber, but it’s tradable. That’s what matters.
AUD/USD isn’t exploding, but it’s quietly building pressure against a well-watched level. As long as we don’t see surprise hawkishness from the Fed or a trade tantrum from Trump, this looks like a lean-on-support, punch-resistance kind of play.
You know how this pair moves: choppy, sticky, but loyal to structure. If you’re long, keep stops tight. If you’re not in yet, let it clear significant levels before entering and make sure you wait for confirmation.
Either way, stay patient, stay sharp, and don’t force what the market hasn’t confirmed yet.
