There’s a major geopolitical risk event on the calendar this week that most retail traders should start paying attention to.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, with a potential second meeting including Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy if progress is made.
Depending on the outcome, we could see big moves in gold, oil, and key safe-haven currencies, and that means opportunity.
Why This Meeting Matters for Markets
Potential Sanctions or Tariffs: Trump has hinted at “very severe consequences” if Putin refuses to agree to a ceasefire. This could include new economic sanctions, possibly targeting Russian energy.
Safe-Haven Flows: A failed meeting could spark flows into JPY and CHF, and potentially gold.
Oil Volatility: Any sanctions on Russian oil could push prices higher in the short term, as the supply chain could be disrupted.
Risk-On Rally if Positive: A breakthrough could see risk assets like the S&P 500 rally further on the good sentiment it will bring.
What I’m Thinking About
This is one of those events where you can plan both bullish and bearish setups ahead of time and react quickly to the outcome.
The key is to avoid over-leveraging before the meeting, but have alerts and technical levels ready so you can jump in when the market picks a direction.
One strategy I will be on a lookout for is the volatility spike setup. This is when the VIX rallies higher, and stock markets fall. In this scenario we often see a recovery come through as the VIX cools off.