If you’ve been trading long enough, you know when the dollar takes a breather, there’s usually more going on than meets the eye. Right now? The greenback’s cooling off slightly, but with NFP looming and Trump setting new deadlines for trade drama, this is not the time to snooze on price action.
We’ve got jobs data, tariff headlines, and global currency whiplash all coming together. Let’s break it down like a trader, fast, clear, and no fluff.
What Traders Need to Know Right Now:
1. Dollar Softens as Traders Brace for NFP
Markets are treading water ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Traders are trimming risk, reducing dollar longs, and waiting for the print. Price action in USD/JPY dipped to 143.82, while EUR/USD edged up to 1.1385. It’s not a trend shift, it’s the market breathing before the sprint.
2. Trump’s 50% Tariff Clock Is Ticking
Today’s the deadline Trump set for new trade offers. It also marks the start of 50% duties on imported steel and aluminum. We’re in the middle of a macro minefield. A call with Xi Jinping could come this week, or not. But either way, headlines from Trump are still driving algo spikes.
Steel / Aluminum Tariffs going up to 50% (from current 25%) on June 4th!
Heavy manufacturing has to return to the US. Shipbuilding. Aircraft. Large machines… you name it.
— #iSapiens (#@iSapiens)
11:21 PM • May 30, 2025
3. JOLTS Surprise Saves the Dollar (Temporarily)
Earlier this week, a manufacturing slump dropped the dollar 0.8%. But then the JOLTS job openings came in hot, sparking a near full rebound. The takeaway is that this market wants to be bullish on USD, but it needs strong data to justify it.
JOLTS job openings rose modestly in April and came in above expectations. The job openings / number of unemployed ratio inched up.
— #Kathy Jones (#@KathyJones)
2:11 PM • Jun 3, 2025
4. Eyes on ADP Ahead of NFP Friday
The ADP employment report is due later today. With low forecasts baked in, any upside surprise could spike USD and yields fast. Keep your calendar open, and your stops tighter. The real show starts Friday, but today’s print could set the tone.
5. Global Currencies Are Still Watching the U.S.
The Aussie held steady near 0.6460 as traders waited for GDP numbers. Meanwhile, the South Korean won strengthened 0.2% after liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung’s win. Even with global political noise, it’s still U.S. data that’s driving most charts.
Here’s the takeaway
The dollar’s not tanking, it’s reloading. And whether it rips higher or tanks into Friday depends entirely on how this week’s data lands.
Volatility isn’t coming. It’s already here.
If you’re trading USD pairs or anything macro-sensitive, now’s not the time to wing it.
Prep for whipsaws and plan your risk. Trade like it’s NFP week, because it is.
