The euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD hovering just above 1.1600 as Monday’s New York session wrapped up. The modest bounce from intraday lows failed to shift the broader bearish tone, with traders reluctant to make big moves ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. CPI release and the August 12 U.S., China trade deadline.
The dollar’s firm footing backed by cautious sentiment has kept the pair pinned near the lower end of its recent range. Even without fresh macro data on Monday, politics and policy speculation filled the void, adding to the choppy market mood.
Here’s What You Need to Know and Why It Matters
1. Dollar Strength Keeps the Pressure On
The greenback started the week with mild softness but quickly found buyers as traders stayed defensive. The CPI print on Tuesday is expected to show annual inflation rising to 2.8% in July from 2.7% in June, with core CPI seen ticking up to 3.0%. A hotter-than-forecast number could cement the dollar’s advantage and push EUR/USD lower.
2. Trade Deadline Adds Another Risk Layer
The U.S.–China “pause” on new tariffs expires August 12. So far, talks have produced more photo ops than policy shifts, and no extension has been confirmed. Markets are watching for last-minute announcements, but the risk of renewed tariffs is keeping safe-haven flows tilted toward the dollar.
Will a (phase two) deal be announced shortly? Not sure 🤔
* Tariff truce ends tomorrow (Aug 12) but could be easily extended
* China isn’t worried about #soybeans, but they do overpay if they skip US supplies
* WH eases export restrictions on chips to CN but wants to tax them
*— #Andrey Sizov (#@sizov_andre)
12:17 PM • Aug 11, 2025
3. Fed in the Political Crosshairs
President Trump’s ongoing criticism of the Fed has intensified, with threats to remove Chair Jerome Powell resurfacing. While the central bank has paused its easing cycle amid inflation concerns, the political noise adds uncertainty, a factor that tends to weigh on risk assets and favor the USD.
4. Technical Outlook: Bias Still Bearish
On the daily chart, EUR/USD is hovering near the lower bound of its recent range, trading around 1.1611. Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside, suggesting sellers still have the upper hand. The price is consolidating just above the ascending trendline (purple) and below the 1.1683 resistance zone, with the 50-day SMA (orange) acting as nearby dynamic resistance.
A clear break below the 1.1610 zone would put 1.1400 back in focus, followed by deeper supports at 1.1082 and 1.0733. On the flip side, bulls would need to reclaim 1.1683 to challenge the 1.1823 high. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, keeping the near-term bias bearish.
5. Macro Calendar: CPI is the Main Event
With Monday offering no major data, traders are squarely focused on Tuesday’s CPI. A softer-than-expected print could take some wind out of the dollar’s sails, giving EUR/USD room to rebound toward 1.17. A hotter read, however, could reinforce the bearish bias and pressure the pair toward fresh monthly lows.
The Takeaway
EUR/USD’s bounce toward 1.1600 isn’t a sign of strength, it’s more like a breather before the next big data-driven move. CPI will likely decide whether the euro claws back lost ground or extends its slide.
For us traders, the playbook is straightforward:
Above 1.1680, upside momentum could build.
Below 1.1600, the next wave of selling could take over.