The euro has quietly been one of the best performers across the G10 board, while the kiwi remains heavy.
Combine that with a clean technical setup, and we’ve got a potential trend trade opportunity worth watching on EUR/NZD.
Why?
Short-term EUR sentiment remains strong according to the currency strength meter.
ECB policy is steady, but inflation expectations are softening slightly — meaning the bank won’t rush to cut rates.
Markets are eyeing upcoming data (GDP + CPI) for clues, but overall, the EUR remains supported by relative stability versus peers.
NZD is weak on the currency strength meter.
NZD fundamentals are not strong with high levels of unemployment.
Conditions
My thought process is to always keep it simple.
The price is in an upward trend making higher highs and higher lows.
We are seeing a retest of the previous supporting lows.
Price is trading above the 50 daily moving average.
Strategy
We have a solid “Why” and we have the correct trading conditions. Now it’s time to apply a strategy.
Wait for the hourly chart price to break into a new upward trend.
A retest and rejection of the 50MA with price closing back above it will trigger my buy.
Stop loss will go ATR below the swing lows.
Target will be the 2.0450 zone of resistance.