There’s something different about watching gold carve out new highs. Seeing it smash through $3,850 felt less like hype and more like a market finally revealing its hand.
This isn’t just about traders chasing momentum, it’s about a shift in confidence that’s been building for months. Between the politics in Washington, Fed uncertainty, and central banks hoarding bullion, gold’s rally is the kind you can’t ignore.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. The Break Above $3,850
The $3,800 level was a wall for weeks, but once it broke that and the $3,850 level, the floodgates opened. Gold is now pushing toward $3,870, and every shallow pullback since late September shows the same story: dip-buyers are stepping in aggressively. What used to be resistance at $3,800 is now acting as fresh support.
2. Technical Structure Still Bullish
Looking at the chart, the uptrend is intact with higher highs and higher lows. Support sits near $3,800, $3,700 and $3,635, with a deeper cushion down around $3,433 if momentum cools.
On the upside, $3,900 is the next target, and a clean daily close above that opens the door to $3,950 or even $4,000. This isn’t a market rolling over; it’s one consolidating on the way up.
3. Fundamentals Are Lining Up
The rally isn’t just technical. A weaker U.S. dollar is fueling the push, weighed down by political wrangling over a potential government shutdown and constant questions around Fed independence. Add to that steady central bank demand and geopolitical tensions, and gold has a safety bid that’s hard to fade.
4. Momentum and Conviction
The key here is conviction. Every retracement has been shallow, more like pauses than reversals. That shows buyers aren’t rushing for the exits, they’re adding on dips. With gold already up nearly 45% this year, that kind of sustained demand signals this move isn’t just noise.
My Takeaway
Breaking $3,850 isn’t the end of gold’s story, it’s the next chapter. The mix of fundamentals and technicals gives this rally real staying power.
Could we see profit-taking? Absolutely.
But unless gold loses $3,800 decisively, the trend is still higher. For us traders, that means treating dips as opportunities, not warnings. In this game, conviction and structure matter more than headlines and right now, gold has both.