Gold Forecast: All Eyes on NFP

Key Points:

• Gold hovers above $3,090 amid trade-driven risk aversion.

• Profit-taking triggered a short-term dip, but buyers re-entered near $3,087.

• Traders await Friday's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) later for directional clarity.

• Momentum still favors bulls as long as $3,000 support holds.

Gold in Focus Ahead of NFP

Gold (XAU/USD) remains a centerpiece of market attention this week, especially after posting an all-time high near $3,167 on Wednesday before cooling to $3,092.52 at Thursday’s New York close. While the pullback was sharp, losing over $60 from the top—buyers stepped in quickly near key support zones, signaling ongoing bullish sentiment tied to macroeconomic uncertainty.

The big catalyst? The upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due later today (Friday), which will either reinforce the case for a Fed pause or revive talk of rate cuts.

What Drove the Pullback?

Wednesday’s spike in gold was driven by fear, plain and simple.

• Trump’s renewed tariff threats, particularly toward China and Japan, sparked global risk-off moves.

• Equity indices slid, bond yields fell, and gold soared to new highs.

• But by Thursday, some traders took profits off the table, selling bullion to cover losses in other assets.

Economic Uncertainty Keeps Gold in Demand

Despite the dip, gold found strong footing around $3,087, a level aligning closely with the ascending trendline from January and previous breakout resistance near $3,050.

Here’s why traders didn’t abandon gold:

• The tariff escalation narrative remains unresolved.

• Inflationary concerns persist globally, especially with supply chains potentially disrupted again.

• Central bank gold buying continues, particularly by emerging economies hedging against currency volatility.

Safe-Haven Flows Are Back

Geopolitical jitters aren’t the only factor. Economic data continues to surprise in ways that confuse central banks.

• The U.S. labor market is softening, albeit gradually.

• Manufacturing PMIs are in contraction territory.

• The Fed has signaled caution—but remains tight-lipped on rate cuts.

That’s exactly the kind of ambiguity gold loves. When uncertainty reigns, traders park capital in non-yielding, safe assets. And nothing says “hedge” quite like gold.

Technical Analysis: Gold Maintains Bullish Structure Despite Pullback

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $3,092, holding above key support levels after a brief but sharp correction from its all-time high of $3,167.

The retracement, while notable, has not damaged the broader uptrend. Buyers quickly stepped in near the $3,087–$3,050 zone, where prior resistance now acts as dynamic support.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: The area between $3,116–$3,120 remains a short-term hurdle. A confirmed break above this region could pave the way for a retest of the $3,167 all-time high.

• Support 1: $3,050 — This level served as the breakout base earlier this week. As long as price remains above it, the bullish momentum remains intact.

• Support 2: $3,000 — A key psychological zone and also aligned with the ascending trendline. A breakdown here would be the first signal of structural weakness.

• Support 3: $2,955 — A previous consolidation area and the final line of defense before a potential move toward $2,830.

RSI Reading

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 65.28, down from its recent overbought levels above 70.

• This suggests that gold has room to consolidate or rally further without being technically overextended.

Market Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: If gold holds above $3,050 and clears $3,120 with volume, momentum buyers could step in again, eyeing new highs above $3,167.

• Bearish Scenario: A daily close below $3,000 would weaken the structure and increase the probability of a pullback toward $2,955 or lower.

NFP Friday: Why It Matters for Gold

The March NFP report could be a game-changer.

Market Forecasts:

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +137K (down from 151K in February)

• Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (unchanged)

• Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% (m/m)

A strong report could boost the U.S. Dollar and bond yields, both of which are traditionally gold-negative. But if job creation slows or wages disappoint, gold could reclaim momentum above $3,120—possibly retesting all-time highs.

Fed Watch:

• Traders are pricing in a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut by July, according to CME FedWatch Tool.

• Commentary from Fed officials later today (Powell, Barr, Waller) could add to the volatility.

Strategic Outlook for Traders

Bullish Scenario:

• NFP misses → Dollar weakens → Yields fall → Gold surges

• Target: Retest of $3,167 ATH, potential extension to $3,200+

Bearish Scenario:

• NFP beats → Dollar rallies → Yields climb → Gold drops

• Support test at $3,050, with $3,000 as make-or-break line

Risk Management Tip: If long from $3,050–$3,060 range, consider trailing stop-loss under $3,000 to protect gains. Short-side setups require break-and-close below trendline + RSI confirmation.

Final Thoughts

Gold remains one of the most compelling assets of 2025, backed by strong fundamentals, safe-haven demand, and a fragile macroeconomic backdrop.

Today’s NFP release is just one piece of the puzzle, but it’s a big one. As the market tries to digest fiscal risk (tariffs) and monetary policy uncertainty (Fed outlook), gold’s role as a volatility hedge has never been more relevant.

Whether you're a day trader eyeing the next $50 move or a swing trader aiming for $3,200+, the gold chart says one thing clearly:

This story isn’t over.