Gold Holds Steady Near $3,360

Gold isn’t running. It’s reloading.

After a week of chop and indecision, GOLD is back above $3,350, climbing steadily and eyeing that familiar zone between $3,385 and $3,425. But let’s not pretend this is a clean trend continuation yet. The chart tells a more nuanced story, and it’s all about timing, compression, and power plays around one critical range.

Trump’s Trade Shockwaves Still Reverberating

Even as U.S.-China tensions show signs of cooling diplomatically, investors aren’t buying the peace just yet. President Trump’s tariff tirades have spooked markets into defensive mode, with gold drawing consistent bids as a hedge against uncertainty.

His administration’s proposal to slap 100% tariffs on foreign films and potentially pharmaceutical imports adds fuel to the fire.

Markets aren’t just reacting to tariffs, they’re reacting to unpredictability. And in volatile times, gold doesn’t need a clear enemy. It just needs confusion.

Geopolitical Risk: Still Very Much on the Table

From the entrenched Russia-Ukraine conflict to fresh unrest in the Middle East, the geopolitical backdrop hasn’t softened. If anything, it’s hardened.

What’s more important?

This global tension isn’t “priced in” it’s constantly repriced, based on headlines, troop movements, and sanction threats. That’s why gold continues to hold support on pullbacks even without major breakout catalysts.

Dollar Weakness = Gold Strength (But Cautiously)

Despite global risk-off flows, the U.S. dollar remains sluggish.

Why? Because traders don’t want to buy into a currency whose government is willing to risk global backlash for domestic political gain.

Tariffs reduce competitiveness. Uncertainty throttles investment. And the result? A dollar that’s struggling to maintain demand, and a gold market that knows it.

Plus, with the FOMC meeting underway, no one’s rushing into fresh dollar longs. That hesitation is translating into soft tailwinds for gold.

Gold’s Price Structure: Calm Now, But Pressure’s Building

Gold is holding steady above a key level, and it’s no accident. The $3,300 mark has acted as a firm support zone in recent sessions, with buyers stepping in multiple times to defend it. Every time price dipped toward that area, it bounced back quickly, showing that demand remains strong when gold pulls back.

As of the May 6 close, gold is trading near $3,350. That places it right in the middle of a range it’s been stuck in since mid-April, a sideways zone where neither bulls nor bears have been able to take control.

Just above, $3,385 stands out as the next hurdle. This level lines up with a key Fibonacci retracement (the 61.8% mark from April’s high to the recent low), and it’s where several past rallies have stalled. If gold can break through that zone, the next major resistance comes at $3,426. A strong move above that could put the all-time high of $3,500 back on the table.

On the downside, there’s still room to fall if support breaks. $3,325 is the first level to watch, but if that goes, $3,300 is where bulls will likely make another stand. If that fails, the next target would be around $3,167, a level that hasn’t been tested since March. Below that, deeper support sits around $3,050.

For now, gold isn’t trending, it’s tightening. Price is moving within a narrower and narrower range, showing signs of pressure building beneath the surface. These kinds of setups don’t last forever. With the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting underway, a breakout, in either direction, could come soon.

Volume Timing Matters More Than Price

Every bounce and rejection recently has lined up with session opens, particularly New York and Asia.

That’s not coincidence. Smart money trades gold on timing, not just zones. If you’re entering off $3,300 during low-volume hours? You’re early. And if you’re chasing candles into $3,426 without session volume behind you? You’re likely late.

Gold is teaching patience right now, and punishing impatience mercilessly.

The FOMC Wildcard

The Fed's two-day meeting could break this compression. If Powell’s tone suggests rate cuts are closer, gold could explode through $3,426. If he doubles down on restrictive language? Expect a flush back to $3,300, maybe even deeper.

The Fed isn't just influencing the dollar. It's reshaping gold volatility pricing. Implied volatility (IV) on gold options has been ticking higher in anticipation, showing traders expect bigger daily moves post-announcement.

Final Thought: The Calm Before the Gold Storm

This isn’t a breakout market yet.

It’s a test of endurance.

Gold is coiling between politics, war, and policy, and the longer it compresses, the bigger the eventual move.

If you're a trader, this is the time to do two things:

• Stay flat when the chart says “wait”

• Load up your edge when the timing finally says “go”

Because when gold finally chooses, it won’t ask twice.