Gold couldn’t hold its shine for long. For the second straight session, XAU/USD is under pressure, sitting just above key support while traders wait for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to speak at Jackson Hole.
The setup is classic: the dollar’s firmer, yields are steady, and the market’s nervous about whether September really brings cuts. That mix has kept gold pinned, even after finding support last week at the 100-day moving average.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters:
1. Fed Rate Cut Bets Trimmed Back
After last week’s hotter PPI data, markets scaled back calls for a big September cut. Kansas City Fed’s Schmid and Cleveland Fed’s Hammack both leaned cautious, saying policy should stay “modestly restrictive.” That tone helped the dollar keep its gains and capped gold’s bounce.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack does not see the case for a September rate cut
— #Kevin Gordon (#@KevRGordon)
3:12 PM • Aug 21, 2025
2. Mixed Signals From Fed Officials
Not all Fed voices are hawkish. Boston’s Collins hinted a September cut is still possible, while Chicago’s Goolsbee called the data “a pause point” but said the meeting is live. That split leaves traders waiting for Powell’s speech to lock in direction.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins opens the door to a September cut:
The Fed's rate stance was appropriate in July but the subsequent payroll figures were softer than expected. If data by the time of next month's meeting suggests more "risks of worsening labor market
— #Nick Timiraos (#@NickTimiraos)
10:07 PM • Aug 21, 2025
3. Jobs Data Adds Fuel to the Fire
Thursday’s Jobless Claims jumped to the highest in three months, with continuing claims at a near four-year high. That weak labor backdrop gave gold a floor, even as rate-cut odds sit around 73.3% for September according to FedWatch.
4. Technical Picture: $3,315 Is Key
Gold is holding just above $3,315 support, sitting on the edge of the range that’s capped the market since April. The 100-day SMA around $3,315 remains a critical pivot, with buyers defending this zone repeatedly.
A clean break under $3,315–$3,300 would expose the next downside levels near $3,265, where prior demand kicked in. Momentum is weakening, and repeated lower highs hint that bulls are losing control of the range.
On the upside, the key hurdle is $3,345–$3,350. A daily close above that band could revive momentum toward $3,375 and the well-watched $3,400 handle, keeping the broader consolidation alive.
Here’s the Takeaway
Gold’s fate this week hinges less on price levels and more on Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole. If the Fed chair leans cautious, rate-cut bets will strengthen and gold will find renewed support. If he stays firm against cuts, the metal could stay pressured.
For us traders, the message is simple: this isn’t a breakout yet, it’s a waiting game. Keep risk tight, stay flexible, and let Powell set the next big move.