Gold’s Tug-of-War: Ceasefire vs. Cuts

Gold’s shine dimmed a bit this week, but not enough for the bears to pound the table. A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran briefly nudged risk sentiment higher, yet the headlines don’t match the missiles still flying overhead.

So here’s what’s really pinning XAU/USD near its recent floor, and what you should be watching next.

Trump went on air and declared a victory: Israel and Iran have agreed to stop shooting. Markets took a breath. Then headlines hit, Israel still launching strikes, and Iran still firing rockets.

Geopolitical risk didn’t vanish. The safe-haven bid for gold took a hit but hasn’t disappeared, because this ceasefire feels more like a pause than peace.

While the Middle East figures out if it’s in or out of war, the Fed’s getting softer. Bowman and Waller floated the idea of a July cut. That, plus softer services PMI, knocked the dollar lower for the second straight day.

When USD drops, gold gets its legs. And right now, that drop is gold’s safety net.

Next up: consumer confidence, manufacturing data, and the real headliner, Powell’s testimony. If he even hints at easing, gold could catch a strong tailwind.

But until then, expect chop. Nobody’s placing big bets without hearing from the Fed boss first.

Gold’s holding above 50-period SMA on the Daily chart and is hovering near the edge of its short-term rising channel.

If $3,323 breaks cleanly, sub-$3,300 is wide open. But if buyers defend this line, we could be looking at a bounce back to $3,368, then $3,400, and maybe even another run at the $3,451 swing high.

Gold’s caught between storylines: a ceasefire that’s more fiction than fact and a Fed that might, just might, be warming up to rate cuts.

The yellow metal wants to break, but it’s stuck in limbo. Keep one eye on Powell and one eye on the Middle East, whichever moves first could send gold either diving under $3,300 or storming back toward $3,500.