Gold finally did it, it broke the $4,000 mark for the first time in history.
Watching that candle print felt surreal. For weeks, the structure hinted this breakout was coming, higher lows, clean rejections, and a steady grind through resistance. But now that we’re here, the real question is: does the rally have more fuel, or are we due for a breather?
Here’s what you need to know:
1. Fundamentals Still Favor the Bulls
The stars keep aligning for Gold.
Ongoing U.S. government shutdown risks, political uncertainty in Europe, and Japan’s pro-stimulus stance have all combined to push investors into safer assets. On top of that, the market is pricing in two more Fed rate cuts this year, October and December, which has kept the U.S. dollar capped and added to the bullish tailwind for XAU/USD.
Even as the U.S. economy wrestles with delayed data and policy confusion, global risk sentiment remains fragile. Every headline about gridlock in Washington or drone strikes in Eastern Europe adds another layer of demand for Gold’s stability.
2. Technicals: Bulls Still in Control, but RSI Screams ‘Caution’
Technically, Gold’s rally is still intact and clean. The breakout above $3,900 last week triggered a new wave of momentum buying, with price now hovering near $4,030 and testing fresh all-time highs.
However, the daily RSI sits above 70, flashing overbought conditions. That doesn’t mean a reversal, but it does hint at potential cooling. A pullback toward $3,950–$3,900 wouldn’t surprise me and honestly, it’d be healthy. That zone aligns with the short-term moving averages, offering a potential buy-the-dip opportunity before another leg higher toward $4,050–$4,100.
For me, this is one of those moments where patience pays more than prediction. I’d rather wait for a clean retest before jumping in again.
My Takeaway
When markets make history, emotions spike, traders chase, FOMO kicks in, and discipline slips. But Gold at $4,000 isn’t just a number; it’s a psychological level that’ll test conviction on both sides.
Personally, I’m waiting for structure to confirm, a dip toward support before rejoining the trend. The macro backdrop still screams bullish, but even the strongest rallies need to breathe.
Gold may have conquered $4,000, but the next battle is holding it.