Last week felt like a rollercoaster and not the fun kind.
We had a volatile mix surprises, split opinions inside the Fed, and then, just when things seemed to cool down, a sharp dip across global equities on Friday triggered by Trump’s surprise 100% tariff threat on China, jolted markets again.
If you blinked, you might’ve missed that mini crash but it was enough to remind everyone that this market still runs on emotion. With trade war fears reignited, this week’s setup could define the tone for much of October.
Now, as we head into a new week, the big question is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell can bring some calm back when he speaks on Wednesday (Oct 15)
Here’s what’s on the radar and why it matters.
1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Wednesday, Oct 15
I guess you already know the drill. When Jerome Powell speaks, traders stop and listen.
This week, his remarks carry extra weight not only for rate expectations, but for how markets navigate trade risks.
Last week’s Fed minutes showed most officials expect two more rate cuts before year-end. But with tariff risks resurfacing, Powell’s tone could tilt the balance between confidence and caution.
I’ll be watching not just what he says, but how he says it. Markets respond to tone more than content especially when sentiment is fragile.
2. Australia’s Labor Data – Thursday, Oct 16
This is one of those reports that doesn’t always grab headlines but it should.
The RBA just cut rates, and the Aussie has been on the defensive.
If jobs data comes in weak, it might confirm that the next RBA move is another cut.
3. U.S. Inflation & Retail Data – Thursday, Oct 16
Thursday brings a crowded docket: consumer & producer inflation, plus retail sales. This is the data trifecta the Fed cares about most.
If inflation softens, that gives Powell cover to lean dovish again. If it surprises hotter, the tariff noise might combine with hawkish repricing.
It’s the kind of week where the reaction matters more than the actual print.
My Takeaway
We’re entering what I’d call a “tone-shift week” not necessarily explosive, but one that defines direction for the rest of the month.
Between Powell’s tone, Aussie jobs, and U.S. inflation prints, this week is all about confirmation or contradiction.
Week’s like this, it’s for reaction traders not prediction traders. I’m trading this week with a guard up. Ciao!