Midweek Flow: Three Pairs Worth Watching

We’re mid-week and the market is finally showing some personality. Not in the loud, news-driven kind of way but in that quiet, slow-burn shift where positioning starts to matter more than intraday noise.

Oil weakness is tugging CAD lower, safe-haven demand is giving JPY some backbone, and AUD is trying to keep itself together at trendline support while China and the U.S. pretend to play nice again.

Not a breakout day, but definitely a setup day.

This pair has pushed into the high 1.41s, its highest levels in roughly seven months. The move is less about USD strength and more about CAD being dragged by falling oil prices.

With crude inventory data showing a large buildup, oversupply fears hit the energy market and when oil falls, CAD tends to fall with it. But the USD side of the equation is not pure strength either the U.S. shutdown is still hanging over sentiment.

The real question is whether USD/CAD can hold above the upper boundary of that ascending channel. If price starts rejecting the top, we could see some rotation lower. If it stabilizes above, then the next leg higher opens up. Right now, this is a reaction area, not a breakout area.

This pair is hovering around the 153.30 to 153.60 area, and you can almost feel the intervention fear in the air. JPY is getting a bit of safe-haven support as equities wobble, and verbal jawboning from Japanese officials is back.

They’re not pulling the trigger, just reminding everyone that they could. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is softening slightly as shutdown uncertainty lingers. This pair is still in an uptrend, but this is not the spot to be aggressive. It either pulls back first, or it forces a squeeze after everyone gives up waiting. Patience here pays more than prediction.

The Aussie is sitting right on top of its long-term trendline support, the same one that’s held since April. China announcing plans to ease some tariffs helped AUD steady, but the currency is still lacking real momentum.

Data out of Australia isn’t bad, but it isn’t inspiring either. If AUD/USD holds this trendline, the path back toward the mid-0.65s opens. If it breaks, then lower support around 0.64 to 0.6370 quickly comes into play.

This is one of those charts where emotion wants to guess, but logic says: wait for the candle to close.

This week isn’t about chasing anything. It’s about letting the market position itself before we commit. USD/CAD is testing its limits, USD/JPY is dancing near intervention territory, and AUD/USD is clinging to structure that either holds or breaks.

We don’t predict here, we just respond when the market finally shows conviction. No rush. The move comes to the patient.