It’s Monday, and the week ahead already feels loaded.
After last week’s chop, traders finally get clarity with three heavyweight events this week: the RBA’s decision, U.S. manufacturing data, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls.
These are the kind of releases that can flip sentiment in hours, and they’ll set the tone for October’s trading.
Here’s what awaits us this week:
1. RBA Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, Sept 30, with rates expected to stay at 3.60%. That part isn’t exciting, but the statement always is. The RBA has been walking a fine line between sticky inflation and a slowing economy, so the tone could easily tip AUD pairs into volatility.
I’ll be watching how AUD/USD reacts during Asia, often the cleanest move comes a few hours after the statement, not immediately.
2. ISM Manufacturing PMI
The U.S. ISM is due Wednesday, Oct 1, and it’s been stuck near contraction. Forecast is 49.1, not a big improvement from last month’s 48.7. Anything below 50 keeps recession chatter alive and could weigh on the dollar. But if it surprises to the upside, the DXY gets a kick, and risk assets could wobble. I like ISM because it tends to give an early “feel” for NFP later in the week.
3. Non-Farm Payrolls
The main event comes Friday, Oct 3. Expectations are for 51K jobs, after last month’s dismal 22K. Unemployment is seen at 4.3% with wages at 0.3%. This is the report that decides how far the Fed can push its rate-cut cycle. Strong jobs = USD bounce. Weak jobs = gold and majors rip higher. Either way, Friday is the day to trade with conviction, not hesitation.
My Weekly Process
I’m keeping things simple. My calendar this week has only three real focus points, RBA, ISM, and NFP. Everything else is noise, just my opinion 😐
Midweek volatility could whip around, so I’ll keep sizes light until Friday. My plan is to journal not just the results but my own reactions, especially around NFP, since emotions tend to spike. The goal is fewer trades, more conviction, and letting the market show its hand before I step in.
My Takeaway
This week is all about timing. Don’t let the quiet start fool you, from the RBA on Tuesday to NFP on Friday, it’s a loaded five days. My focus will be to ride the momentum rather than fight it, keeping size controlled ahead of Friday’s jobs report. The setups will come, but patience pays more than forcing trades mid-week.