NZD/USD is attempting a small bounce after tagging the 0.5627 support zone, one of the key demand areas that has repeatedly caught price since 2022.
Even with the bounce, the structure remains heavy: price is still trading well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the broader weekly downtrend line continues to cap every major rally.
In the short term, the market is basically stuck between 0.5780 resistance and 0.5627 support.
A clean break above 0.5780 would be the first sign that momentum is shifting, opening the door toward 0.5864 and 0.5951. But if the pair rolls over again and loses 0.5627, the next downside magnets sit at 0.5591, 0.5552, and even 0.5490, levels that align with historical weekly structure and downside liquidity.
On the weekly chart, nothing has changed in the bigger picture. NZD/USD is still in a long-term descending market, consistently making lower highs since early 2021.
The pair will need a full break above the trendline and monthly resistance near 0.6063 to even start talking about a deeper reversal.
My Takeaway:
Short-term bounce, long-term downtrend. Watch how price behaves at 0.5627, holding it keeps price in consolidation; losing it exposes fresh lows.