Oil traders lit the fuse Thursday as headlines from the Middle East rattled markets again.
This time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a dramatic escalation of military strikes against Iran, sending crude prices surging.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. Israel Targets Tehran, Markets React
Brent crude jumped nearly 3%, closing at $78.85, its highest settlement since January 22. U.S. WTI wasn’t far behind, climbing to $77.20 at session highs. Why the spike? Israel’s military has been instructed to go after strategic targets in Iran, including those in the capital. Defense Minister Israel Katz made it clear: Tehran’s leadership is now fair game.
Markets aren’t just reacting to rockets, they’re pricing in regime risk. That’s big.
2. Trump Hints at U.S. Strike on Iran
President Trump poured fuel on the fire by telling reporters he’s considering a strike on Iran’s nuclear program. “I may do it, I may not do it,” he said in classic Trump style.
The White House says a decision will come within two weeks, but markets know one thing: even the talk of U.S. involvement can push oil prices higher.
3. Iran Hospital Strike Crosses a Red Line
The situation escalated further after an Iranian missile reportedly hit a hospital in Beersheba. In response, Katz issued a direct threat to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. That kind of rhetoric isn’t noise, it’s a signal to energy markets that supply disruptions are becoming more likely.
4. JPMorgan Flags Regime Risk for Oil
JPMorgan’s global commodities head Natasha Kaneva warned that regime instability in a major OPEC producer like Iran could keep oil prices elevated for a long time. History backs that up, just look at Libya or Venezuela. Supply disruptions tied to political collapse tend to stick around.
Kaneva’s call? If Iran destabilizes further, prepare for oil to stay hot for a while.
5. Technical Levels Reflect the Heat
From a chart perspective, Brent is testing resistance near $79.00. A confirmed breakout could open the door toward the $82.00 region. WTI faces short-term resistance at $77.50, with support down at $74.20. Volatility is back, and it’s not going anywhere as long as war headlines keep coming.
Here’s the Takeaway:
Oil’s not just trading on fundamentals, it’s now a war trade. As long as Iran and Israel keep trading blows and the U.S. dangles intervention, crude will stay bid. Traders should buckle up for more geopolitical risk premiums.
Energy bulls are in the driver’s seat, for now.
