Oil traders just got a fresh reminder that OPEC+ isn’t backing down. For the sixth straight month, the cartel agreed to ramp up production, this time by another 547,000 barrels per day in September. And despite the move being framed as confidence in the market, prices didn’t buy it. Brent and WTI both slipped early Monday in Asia, extending Friday’s losses.
The supply surge, coupled with looming geopolitical pressure from Washington, is putting traders on alert for the next move not just from oil ministers, but from the White House.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters.
1. Another Supply Jolt Is Coming Fast
BREAKING: OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output by 548,000 bpd in September 2025, unwinding major cuts amid fears of Russian supply disruptions. With oil rigs in Kurdistan eyeing 1M bpd exports, global markets brace for impact!
— #𝐃𝐔𝐓𝐂𝐇 (#@pr0ud_americans)
1:44 PM • Aug 3, 2025
Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting was brief but impactful. The group greenlit a September hike of 547,000 barrels per day maintaining its pattern of fast-paced production increases after years of curbs. That brings the cumulative hike since April to nearly 2.5 million bpd, unwinding the largest chunk of prior cuts. It’s a rapid reversal, and the timing is key: this comes as global inventories are low, but recession and demand risks are still on the table.
Brent fell to $69.24 and WTI to $66.94 both down nearly 0.6% in early trade after Friday’s $2 drop. Clearly, the market is questioning whether demand can keep pace with supply.
2. Geopolitics Are Stirring the Barrel
OPEC’s move comes as the U.S. pressures India to cut Russian oil imports, aiming to push Russia toward peace talks over Ukraine. With Trump demanding a deal by August 8, tensions are rising. A shift in Russian flows could disrupt global supply again or trigger retaliation, especially with Russia still in OPEC+.
3. OPEC+ Says “Market’s Strong” But Is It?
OPEC+ claims strong growth and low inventories justify more output, but the market’s sending mixed signals. Prices hover near $70, down from recent highs, and macro risks are building.
Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen sees confidence, but UBS’s Staunovo warns it’s China’s stockpiling that’s propping up demand. If that slows, so could the optimism.
4. Next Meeting Could Get Messy
OPEC+ meets again on September 7, possibly to debate ending the last 1.65M bpd in COVID-era cuts. With Trump’s pressure and rising geopolitical risks, unity will be harder to maintain.
Ex-OPEC official Jorge Leon said the group “passed the first test,” but the real challenge now is staying cohesive under growing tension.
5. Trump’s Russia Move Is the Wildcard
Trump’s expected announcement Friday on sanctions or tariffs could shake the oil market again. Tougher restrictions may reroute Russian barrels, disrupting trade and fueling volatility.
This isn’t just about output anymore, it’s a geopolitical chess match. Supply tweaks mean little without diplomacy and political maneuvering.
Here’s the Takeaway:
OPEC+ raised output again, but prices are slipping and tensions are rising. For traders, it’s not just about barrels, it’s the balance between supply, geopolitics, and sentiment.
Volatility will likely build into September as OPEC+ meets, Russia talks shift, and demand gets tested. This is no longer just about oil, it’s about control.