Halloween’s here, and Jerome Powell might be the one handing out tricks instead of treats.
The Fed just delivered another rate cut but Powell’s message wasn’t sweet at all. He’s trying to keep everyone happy: markets begging for more easing, Fed members getting divided, and a legacy that’s starting to feel shaky as his term ticks down.
For us traders, that means one thing: this isn’t just a policy story anymore, it’s a power struggle wrapped in politics, pressure, and timing.
So before you jump on any early “December cut” trades, remember… Powell’s not the only one at the table anymore.
Here’s What You Need to Know
1. The Cut Came But So Did the Caveat
🚨BREAKING🚨
🇺🇸 FED CUT RATES BY 25 BPS.
— #Ash Crypto (#@Ashcryptoreal)
6:00 PM • Oct 29, 2025
The Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points, dropping the benchmark to 4.00%. Everyone expected it.
What they didn’t expect was Powell’s tone, cautious, borderline defensive, and full of warnings. He basically told markets: “Don’t assume December’s a done deal.”
Well from the looks of it, he’s not your friendly neighborhood dove anymore.
2. Markets Aren’t Listening (Yet)
Even after Powell’s tough talk, traders still priced in a 60-70% chance of another cut in December.
Bond yields popped the 10-year back above 4%, 2-year near 3.6%, while stocks slipped. Classic risk-off reaction.
It’s like Powell yelled “Careful!” and the market just shrugged and kept running.
3. The Fed’s Family Feud
The real drama’s inside the boardroom.
One camp says the economy’s too fragile, cut more.
The other says inflation’s still sticky, pause now.
Powell’s stuck playing referee, and with the government shutdown clouding data, every call he makes will be second-guessed.
Add in Trump scouting Powell’s replacement? Yeah that’s pressure with a capital P.
My Takeaway
Forget the haunted houses, the real scare this Halloween is at the Federal Reserve.
Powell’s trying to defend his credibility, calm markets, and manage his own team, all before the next FOMC showdown in December.
As traders, that means one thing: brace for mood swings.
Volatility is the treat; prediction is the trick.
Trade the reactions, not the speeches because when politics and policy mix, charts stop being polite.