Next week’s calendar is short but loaded.
For us traders, these are the kind of events that can make or break setups. The U.S. jobs report, services data, and Australia’s GDP with RBA commentary will all shape how markets trade into September.
Here’s what you need to know and why it matters:
1. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Sep 5)
The main event next week would be the NFP.
NFP will test whether the Fed can keep playing cautious or if the labor market is finally softening enough to speed up cuts. Job creation, wages, and the unemployment rate will be key. A strong report keeps the dollar bid and makes gold vulnerable. A weak print does the opposite, selling the dollar and reviving risk appetite.
2. ISM Services PMI (Sep 4)
Services are still the backbone of the U.S. economy, and this report has been sending mixed signals.
A stronger read suggests the U.S. can absorb tariffs and rate pressure, which boosts yields and the dollar. A weak print feeds growth concerns, keeps Fed cut bets alive, and helps gold push higher.
3. Australia GDP + RBA (Sep 3)
Australia releases Q2 GDP just before RBA Governor Bullock speaks.
Exports have held up, but domestic demand has been patchy. A weaker number plus a dovish RBA could drag AUD/USD lower, especially if China headlines stay negative. A surprise upside read would test shorts and potentially squeeze the pair higher.
Quick Technical Outlooks
USD (DXY)
The dollar index is holding near recent highs. If NFP and ISM come in strong, DXY could retest 100.00. Weak numbers could see a pullback toward 98.80 support.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is consolidating around $3,300–$3,430. A dovish tilt from Powell or weak U.S. data could reopen $3,440–$3,500 as resistance. On the downside, a strong NFP could push it toward $3,300, with $3,250 as the next test.
AUD/USD
The pair is trading near 0.6500. A soft GDP and cautious RBA stance risks a move to 0.6420 support. If GDP surprises higher, bulls may aim for 0.6580 and possibly 0.6600.
Takeaway
The calendar may look light, but these three catalysts will set the tone across FX, commodities, and indices. For us traders, the strategy is clear: stay patient, respect levels, and let the data call the shots.
Remember, survival and structure matter more than predicting the exact print.