The Death of Positive Thinking

“Chin up.”

“C’mon – be positive.”

“You can do this!”

We’ve had the concept of positive thinking rammed down our throats. Simply ‘attract’ the results you want. You’ll be punished for your pessimism.

But how accurate is this idea?

Self-help gurus love this route.

But is thinking positively actually helping us achieve what’s really important in our lives?

Michael Phelps’s Movies

Bob Bowman coached swimmer Michael Phelps to 23 world records. He spotted Michael’s incredible potential when he was in Grade 5. But Michael’s physical training could only take him so far.

He told him: “It takes what it takes.” He talked to Michael about swimming in the Olympics, goals for the year, goals for his next training session.

He told Michael to form a complete mental vision of winning the race. Bob called this ‘The Movie’.

It turns out that mental practice triggers mirror neurons, and the same brain circuits are recruited in comparison to if you actually DID that activity.

During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, both Bob and Michael were hoping for a groundbreaking world record. They had their movies all lined up.

But after the dive, his goggles started filling up with water. By the time he was halfway through the race, he couldn’t see anything. Swimming blind. Stinging eyes. Disaster.

However, it turns out that Michael had got so bored with his mental movies being so 'perfect', he had begun to play out disasters in his mind. Every type of disaster imaginable.

He had replayed this exact scenario, in his mind, over and over in his mental 'disaster' movie.

He knew it took 20 strokes to hit the wall. Swimming blind.

He won! He got the world record! Gold medal!

A perfect swim.

He pre-rehearsed the obstacles and worked out ways around them. He focused on overcoming the worst possible scenario.

And you have to be ready for whatever comes up. In your trading and in your life.

Positive, Pollyanna thinking is a recipe for disaster

The more positively university graduates fantasised about success, two years later the fewer job applications they sent out and the fewer jobs they were offered and the less they earned.

Those who embark on a weight-loss campaign and picture themselves gaining a physique to rival Elle McPherson, end up regaining the weight they lose, and not losing as much in the first place.

Elderly individuals who dream of a full recovery after hip surgery can walk the fewest steps after their operation. Dream of the ideal relationship? You’re more likely to be alone.

Mentally simulating our desired outcome makes us think we’ve already got there. So we don’t have to put energy into the goal itself.

According to Gabrielle Oettingen, Professor of Psychology and NYU, “The obstacles in our way are the trigger for overcoming them, and getting to implement our positive fantasies.” She calls this mental contrasting.

It’s where an ‘if’ ‘then’ plan can really come to the fore. She developed the scientifically proven tool - WOOP - Wish Outcome Obstacle Plan. It’s not negative thinking. It’s factoring the obstacles you’re likely to face and planning around them.

You be the judge.

As a trader, we plan for every contingency. We plan for the worst. We set stops. We are pragmatic. Sure, we may not have planned for a pandemic, but the exact specifics don't matter.

Exceptional traders knew their worst-case scenario and stepped aside from the markets when it was throwing them an uppercut.

It's nice to know that exceptional trading behaviour is directly in line with the latest research about high performance, hey?