Some weeks give traders a clear roadmap. Others, like this one, throw everything into the mix at once.
Between U.S. retail sales, U.K. inflation, the Fed’s September decision, and a Bank of England rate call, it’s a calendar stacked with catalysts.
For us FX traders, this isn’t just another week, it’s one that could reset the trend for both the dollar and sterling.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. U.S. Retail Sales (Tuesday)
The dollar gets its first test with August retail sales. Forecasts point to a modest gain (+0.4% core, +0.2% headline). A stronger print tells the Fed the U.S. consumer is still spending, reinforcing the “soft landing” story. But a miss could feed the argument that growth is rolling over just as the Fed is cutting rates, a bearish setup for the dollar.
For EUR/USD, this release is the prelude to Wednesday–Thursday’s storm. A hot number favors the dollar staying bid, while a weak one risks triggering a squeeze higher in euro and gold before the Fed.
2. FOMC Decision + Press Conference (Thursday)
This is the main event. The Fed is expected to cut the Federal Funds Rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. But the cut itself isn’t the story, it’s the dot plot and Powell’s tone.
If projections signal more cuts ahead, the dollar could take a heavy hit, dragging DXY back toward 102. But if Powell insists that easing will be gradual, markets may need to unwind their aggressive bets. Volatility here won’t just hit the dollar, gold, equities, and yields are all in play.
3. Bank of England Decision (Thursday)
The BOE faces its own credibility test. Inflation is stuck at 3.8%, but growth has been weak. Rates are expected to stay at 4.00%, yet the vote split will tell the real story.
A hawkish dissent (votes for a hike) could give sterling a lift, especially if the Fed is dovish.
A dovish tilt opens the door for GBP/USD to slip back toward the 1.15 handle.
The Fed–BOE one-two punch on Thursday could set the tone for GBP/USD for the rest of the year.
My Weekly Process
This is a week for patience, not noise.
What could work well: Stick to dollar and sterling setups.
What to expect: Sharp whipsaws into the Fed, trend clarity only after Thursday.
Focus for this week: Journal reactions, not just results. Wait for the market to tip its hand, don’t guess it.
(Note: This is simply my personal process when trading big news events. It’s not financial advice, and I encourage you to always do your own research and make decisions that fit your own strategy.)
My Takeaway
This is one of those rare weeks where the market resets its narrative. Between the Fed and BOE, retail sales and CPI, every major currency is in play.
For us traders, the edge isn’t in guessing outcomes, it’s in waiting for the dust to settle and trading the reaction with conviction.