Gold’s been through a rollercoaster. After a 5% plunge, its biggest single drop since 2020, our favorite metal finally caught a breath, climbing back toward that $4,000 mark. But let’s be real: this isn’t victory yet IMO. It’s a standoff.
The market’s holding its breath ahead of the FOMC decision, and that makes every tick above or below $4,000 feel loaded. With traders expecting another rate cut in December and the Fed likely to stay dovish today, gold is trying to prove it still deserves its safe-haven crown.
Here’s What You Need to Know:
1. The Bounce Looks Technical But It’s Also Nerves
Gold snapped its three-day losing streak after testing $3,900 and is now flirting with $4,000 again. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,975–$4,000 is acting like a magnet and that’s where bulls are making their stand. But the tone feels cautious, not confident. It’s not a “breakout” yet; it’s survival mode before the Fed.
2. The Fed’s Shadow Looms Large
Every gold trader knows the playbook by now: lower rates = weaker USD = gold strength.
The problem? Powell’s wording. If he hints at patience instead of urgency, gold’s rally could fade fast. On the flip side, a confident nod toward more easing might reignite momentum and send prices toward $4,050–$4,130 in a heartbeat.
3. The Chart Still Has Room to Breathe
Technically, gold hasn’t broken trend. The uptrend from September is still holding barely. The 50% Fib level at $3,853 is the next key cushion, followed by $3,720 (the 61.8% level). Above $4,000, the first hurdle sits at $4,058–$4,060, and beyond that, $4,130 remains the key short-term bull target.
My Takeaway
This isn’t the time to call tops or bottoms. Gold at $4,000 is a psychological battlefield and the Fed’s decision will decide who wins.
Personally, I’m waiting for confirmation. If Powell stays dovish, I’ll look for momentum above $4,060. But if the dollar catches a bid, I’ll respect the downside and let $3,850 do its job. The point is simple: patience pays more than prediction in weeks like this.
Gold’s back in the game, but the Fed holds the ball.