Gold is starting Thursday the same way it finished yesterday, steady, confident, and holding its ground above the $4,200 zone. And honestly, it makes sense. When US jobs data softens, the market immediately smells “rate cut,” and gold is usually the first asset to react.
Right now, XAU/USD isn’t exploding higher, but it’s firm. And firmness at a key level is often more telling than a big candle. Traders are waiting for more proof, Jobless Claims today, PCE tomorrow but momentum is slowly leaning in gold’s favor.
Let’s break down why the yellow metal keeps getting support.
Here’s What You Need to Know
1. Weak US Private Payrolls Push Rate-Cut Expectations Higher
ADP showed US private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, a sharp miss compared to forecasts. That’s the second month of softening job data, and markets reacted immediately. A weaker labor market means the Fed has room to cut, and traders love that narrative. Gold tends to shine when the economy looks tired.
2. Markets Now Price an 89% Chance of a Fed Cut Next Week
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, rate-cut odds jumped from 71% to 89% in just one week. That’s a major shift. When the market leans that heavily toward cuts, gold benefits because its “no-yield” nature becomes less of a disadvantage. Lower rates = lower opportunity cost. Simple but powerful.
3. Jobless Claims Today, PCE Tomorrow, This Is the Real Test
Today’s Initial Jobless Claims will either confirm the labor weakness… or challenge it. But the real market-mover is tomorrow’s delayed PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge.
If PCE cools → gold gets room to run.
If PCE heats up → USD finds support and gold gets capped.
Right now, traders are positioning quietly, not aggressively.
My Takeaway
Gold holding above $4,200 isn’t random, it’s the market telling you the Fed story is shifting again.
This isn’t a breakout day.
This is a positioning day.
If you’re trading XAU/USD today, keep your expectations clear:
Respect the $4,200 support zone
Don’t chase highs before PCE drops
Let data confirm the next move
Gold has the advantage for now, but the real catalyst comes in the next 48 hours.
Patience is the edge. Always.