Bitcoin continues to show frailties, dropping below the $100k level and the support trendline. This is a clear signal that the risk appetite across global markets is fading. Add to this the VIX (Volatility Index) is rising and is now back above the 20 level.
The Market Just Flipped Into Risk-Off Mode
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) breaking below both $100,000 and its long-held weekly trendline is not just a crypto story, it’s a risk sentiment story.
BTC has broken its bullish structure
Weekly candle has closed below the 100k support
It also sliced through the multi-month ascending trendline
This shows us that the sellers are driving this market right now. If markets are under pressure investors will look to sell positions in assets that have been performing well.
Bitcoin & NASDAQ: The Correlation That Matters This Week
Bitcoin continues to behave like a leveraged tech ETF. Let’s compare the Bitcoin price and the NASDAQ.
The correlation shows:
NAS100 rolling over after setting recent highs
BTC breaking structure first
BTC falling harder and earlier and is often a leading indicator
Potential downside acceleration if NAS100 follows through
If Bitcoin continues down into the end of the week, the NASDAQ could follow.
With the U.S. government shutdown now resolved, a wave of postponed economic releases is dropping all at once. This alone is enough to increase volatility. A rise in volatility can equal a decline in the stock markets.
Trading Opportunity
Short-term Bias:
Risk-off continuation
Potential setups:
Sell rallies on NAS100 into previous support-turned-resistance
BTC short toward 71k, with invalidation above 100k
Gold long on dips if data confirms risk-off
USD long vs weaker currencies (GBP & NZD) into NFP
This week’s data dump gives traders real catalysts that align with the technical breakdown we’re already seeing.