Last week’s jobs report gave traders plenty to chew on, but this week is even sharper.
When CPI and the ECB land in the same 24 hours, you don’t waste energy on side stories. I’ve learned the hard way that the market doesn’t reward scattered focus on weeks like this. Instead, I’m lining up for the prints that actually move the needle.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. U.S. CPI Takes the Spotlight
Core CPI is forecast at 0.3% m/m, headline at 0.3% / 2.9% y/y. A hotter print could spark a dollar rebound and cool Fed cut optimism. A soft number, though, would lock in September’s dovish case and fuel upside for gold and euro. This is the number that resets positioning across the board.
2. ECB Press Conference Will Set the Tone
Rates aren’t expected to move, but Lagarde’s tone is what matters.
Inflation at 2.15% keeps pressure on hawks, but sluggish growth argues for patience. EUR/USD is trapped near 1.10, and whichever way she leans is where the breakout goes.
ECB officials are likely to make an uncontentious judgment on interest rates, even while nervously watching a political crisis raging at the heart of the euro area
— #Bloomberg (#@business)
8:30 PM • Sep 6, 2025
3. Sterling’s Reality Check
U.K. GDP on Friday is expected flat at 0.0%, down from 0.4%. That’s a big deal for a currency already stuck in a wedge. A weak print hands bears momentum toward 1.31, while an upside surprise finally gives bulls a reason to push beyond resistance.
4. U.S. Sentiment Closes the Week
The University of Michigan prints on Friday, covering consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In a slowing economy, confidence readings matter, weak data here adds fuel to the Fed-cut narrative and drags the dollar.
My Weekly Process
What could work well this week is keeping my playbook simple, CPI, the ECB, and U.K. GDP. Those are the only three events I need to pay attention to, and I’ll be using DXY as my compass for how the majors move around them.
What I expect is straightforward: volatility will peak Thursday into Friday, and the market will likely whip around the CPI release before a real direction shows. That means patience matters more than prediction.
My focus this week is to not overtrade. I’d rather take fewer setups with bigger conviction than scatter myself thin. I’ll be journaling my reactions around the news, not just the results, and reminding myself to wait until the market tips its hand instead of guessing where it’s going.
My Takeaway
This week is all about discipline. I don’t need 10 trades, I just need the patience to line up with the big catalysts: CPI, the ECB, and GDP. The rest is noise. If I can stick to that, I’ll finish the week with clarity and hopefully, with profit.