West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is climbing for the fourth straight session, holding above $65 and sitting at its highest levels in three weeks. At first glance, it looks like just another bounce. But the drivers behind this move are bigger than technical noise, geopolitics and supply shocks are doing the heavy lifting.
Here’s why this rally isn’t random:
1. Washington Tightens the Screws
Trump urges Turkey's Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil
➡️ go.france24.com/pPh— #FRANCE 24 (#@FRANCE24)
5:24 PM • Sep 25, 2025
The U.S. is doubling down on efforts to choke Russia’s energy revenues. President Trump urged Turkey’s President Erdogan to halt Russian oil purchases, while sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned NIS refinery will kick in October 1. These moves come on top of NATO’s latest warnings and ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, all adding to market jitters.
2. Russia Restricts Its Own Exports
The Russian government will extend the complete ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025 for all market participants in the near future, as well as introduce a ban for non-diesel fuel producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters:
vk.cc/cPQ3KW— #TASS (#@tassagency_en)
2:02 PM • Sep 25, 2025
Moscow is also making things tighter. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed a partial diesel export ban lasting through year-end, while extending limits on gasoline shipments. With refining capacity already under pressure, several Russian regions are reporting fuel shortages. For traders, that’s a clear sign supply stress is real.
3. WTI Holds the $65 Floor
On the charts, $65 is shaping up as a line in the sand. Prices are trading just above it, with near-term resistance at $65.80 and a bigger target up near $71.30. Holding above $64.90 keeps momentum on the bulls’ side. The longer WTI consolidates over $65, the more comfortable buyers get.
4. The Fed Factor Could Cap Upside
The wildcard is U.S. monetary policy. Fed officials this week split on how aggressive cuts should be, some cautious, others wanting deeper easing. If the Fed holds steady while inflation stays sticky, risk sentiment could cool, limiting speculative flows into commodities like oil.
My Takeaway
Crude’s rally isn’t being fueled by demand hype, it’s being powered by geopolitics. Sanctions, strikes, and export bans are all tightening the supply picture. As long as WTI holds $65, the market leans bullish. But with the Fed still in the mix, traders should expect volatility, not a straight-line breakout.