Last week’s no-show left traders flying blind. With the U.S. government shutdown halting data releases, markets were left guessing and reacting to shadows. Now that Washington is partially back online, the long-awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report might finally land this Friday. The key word: might.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. Data Delays Still Cloud the Picture
Even though the lights are back on in D.C., the data flow hasn’t fully recovered. The Unemployment Claims report (forecast: 225K vs 218K prior) will be the first test of how much damage the shutdown did to momentum.
If claims rise, it adds fuel to the “soft landing turning rough” narrative and may push yields lower especially if traders start pre-positioning for Friday’s jobs report. But any upside surprise could easily flip sentiment back toward a firmer dollar.
2. FOMC Minutes Take Center Stage (Wednesday, Oct 8)
🇺🇸U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK:
• FED FOMC MINUTES (WED.)
• CONSUMER SENTIMENT (FRI.)
• INFLATION EXPECTATIONS (FRI.)$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX
— #Investing.com (#@Investingcom)
2:00 PM • Oct 5, 2025
Before we even get to NFP, Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes could set the tone for everything that follows.
We want clarity above all else.
Was the Fed’s last rate cut just a one-off insurance move, or the start of a full easing cycle?
If the minutes reveal growing concern about labor weakness or inflation drifting lower, expect renewed talk of another 25-bps cut in October.
For gold, that could be the catalyst to finally break above $3,900. For USD, it’s a potential speed bump after a week of relative strength.
3. The Big One: NFP (Friday, Oct 10)
After the delay, this is the market’s make-up exam. Consensus sits at 52K jobs added, unemployment steady at 4.3%, and wages up 0.3% m/m.
But we aren’t just watching the numbers, we are watching the reaction.
A weak print could validate the Fed’s caution and revive bets for more cuts. A strong one, on the other hand, could make last month’s rate cut look premature and lift the dollar across the board.
Either way, with the data still labeled tentative, don’t expect a smooth Friday session.
My Takeaway
This week isn’t just about whether NFP finally prints, it’s about how much faith the market still has in the data and the Fed’s game plan.
For me, it’s all about managing expectations. The FOMC minutes will shape the narrative, and NFP will test it.
Gold, oil, and USD are all in play but the smartest move this week might be staying patient while everyone else tries to front-run the comeback.