Markets breathed a sigh of relief as the White House confirmed that President Donald Trump’s July 8 and 9 tariff deadlines aren’t set in stone. While global traders have been nervously eyeing those dates for potential tariff snapbacks, the message from Washington this week? Chill, it’s flexible.
Here’s what you need to know so far:
1. Trump’s Deadlines Might Flex
BREAKING: The White House says the July 9th trade deadline (the final day of the original 90-day tariff pause) could be changed but it is up to President Trump.
Folks, I don’t think July 9th will be the day where we see the Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs come back.
I think
— #amit (#@amitisinvesting)
5:54 PM • Jun 26, 2025
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt made it clear: the July deadlines to reinstate Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are “not critical.” That means the president could push them back, again. Markets rallied on the hint, with traders betting that cooler heads (or political priorities) might delay the fireworks.
This ain’t a hard stop, it’s a moving goalpost, especially with election season heating up.
2. ‘Reciprocal’ Means Trump Picks the Rate
Leavitt also emphasized that if other countries don’t come to the table with trade deals, Trump can just slap on a tariff rate he deems “advantageous for the American worker.” That’s code for: he makes the rules, and if talks stall, expect tariffs tailor-made to hit hard.
It’s looking like a volatility magnet, especially if the chosen rates spook global supply chains.
3. The 90-Day Grace Window Is Closing
Back in April, Trump launched reciprocal tariffs across the board, but gave a 90-day grace period beyond the 10% base rate to allow countries to strike deals. That pause expires on July 8. So far, only China and the UK have inked something resembling agreements, and even those are still more “frameworks” than real deals.
If others miss the deadline, tariff hikes could snap back fast, unless Trump delays again.
4. EU Got a Temporary Pass But It’s Ticking
Trump had also threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods in late May. But after some back-and-forth with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he gave her a timeout until July 9 to get something done.
So yes, the deadline moved, but the threat didn’t vanish. Traders should keep July 9 on the radar for a potential EU headline spike.
5. 90 Deals in 90 Days? Not Quite
When Trump first hit pause on the full tariff rollout, the administration floated a bold claim: they could close 90 trade deals in 90 days. Reality check, we’re near the deadline, and just two deals (China and the UK) are on the board.
Talks with India are reportedly close, but even that’s not signed. Kevin Hassett of the National Economic Council says a wave of deals could be announced after Congress passes Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, possibly by July 4.
That means any trade headlines, or lack thereof, in early July could seriously shake market direction.
Here’s the Takeaway:
Traders shouldn’t count on Trump’s tariff deadlines as immovable. July 8 and 9 are more like warnings than detonators, but they’re still loud enough to move markets. Until more deals are signed and sealed, USD and risk assets remain tethered to tariff talk.
Expect headlines. Expect positioning. And expect the unexpected, this is Trump trade policy, after all.
