Why No One Is Selling the Swiss Franc

The Swiss National Bank is beginning to run out of options; we will either see negative rates or intervention.

But only one will really move the needle.

Today, on June 19^th, 2025, the Swiss National Bank or SNB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points from 0.25% to 0%. This is the central banks sixth consecutive cut since March 2024.

Swiss inflation fell into the negative in May (-0.1%), due to the Swiss Franc’s strength lowering import prices.

The European haven currency has surged against the USD this year as market uncertainty continue to plague headlines. USDCHF is down just over 12% year to date.

It was also reported by Reuters that the SNB flagged global economic fragility, directly correlated to trade risk in justifying the cut.

They have avoided cutting into negative rates, but it will only be a matter of time before they make it there again.

If this does not prevent further deflation, then the SNB may have to intervene in the market.

After the announcement, the Swiss Franc continued to strengthen against the USD.

The price found resistance towards 0.8200 where previous volume was built earlier in the month.

If the price breaks through the supporting trendline, it could signal the price heading back down towards the lows of 0.8100.

In the short term it looks like the Swiss Franc will remain strong, especially against the USD which has problems of its own. This is being supported by the external uncertainties surrounding trade and ongoing escalations in the middle east, which the US seems prepared to get involved in.

In the medium term the market may begin to sell Swiss Francs if the central bank dips its toes back into the negative. However, to me this seems inevitable, yet the market isn’t interested in selling the currency right now.

This tells me that sentiment really need to shift if I were to look to sell this currency. This could be in the shape of trade tariffs being reduced or taken away across certain countries, or escalations in the middle east dissipate.

However, right now, I can’t see these happening just yet.

Intervention could be the only card the central bank could play, but they are reluctant to act as the US President could deem this is ironically as market manipulation.

It’s not like he himself told the whole world to buy the dip.

Intervention seems unlikely but the central bank can’t be completely taken off the table.

Market sentiment really needs to shift back to the positive if we were to see some moves higher here.

The market is still bullish Swiss Franc’s for now even with the potential of cutting rates into the negative.