Why Isn't XRP Mooning? Analysts, Insights And Why You Should Chill

You don’t need to be a holder of $XRP.X ( ▼ 0.95% ) or even be a big fan of it to appreciate that the lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC coming to an end is a really big deal. After a long four year legal battle, the SEC dropped their appeal in the lawsuit against Ripple, who accused the company of selling XRP as an unregistered security. Now the reason this was a huge deal for Ripple (the company behind XRP) and the crypto industry as a whole, is because if XRP went down, it would set a big precedent for everyone else. In fact, during this particular lawsuit, a lot of smaller projects that were also being sued, folded. Not because they were in the wrong necessarily, but because they didn’t have the capital necessary to put up a fight.

Ripple, on the other hand, had the capital and spent about $100m on the lawsuit.

But here’s why some people are scratching their heads. Even with this massive victory, XRP’s price hasn’t really done that much. But for us to understand why XRP isn’t melting faces, we need to look beyond the legal win, dive into the mechanics of the market and see what the experts are saying. 

Now just for some extra context, a lot of people in and around crypto are conspiratorial, ie: they love a good story.  Don’t ask me why, it is probably just a biproduct of sniffing too much hopium and refreshing X feeds too often. But throughout the length of the XRP case, there were so many conspiracies popping up it was difficult to keep count. From the entire case being a smoke screen for something larger, to certain numbers and codes revealing timelines or clues; to mysterious forces manipulating the markets, intentionally keeping prices up or down so those in charge could get rich while we stay poor - it went on and on.

While we can’t definitively say whether or not any of that is true, a lot of it was really far fetched. 

That is with the exception of ‘market manipulation’. Now market manipulation can look like a few different things, but in this case we’re going to focus on something called ‘trade dusting’. 

Market analyst Vincent Van Code recently weighed in on XRP and ‘trade dusting', and according to him, the lack of a big price surge isn’t due to some hidden institutional agenda or deep state influence. Instead, it’s all about market manipulation and the way trading works in low-volume environments.

Van Code thinks it’s this ‘trade dusting’ that’s part of the reason XRP isn’t moving. This is when traders place a ton of tiny orders (like 6 XRP worth) to artificially inflate trading volume. It then creates the illusion of liquidity, making it seem like there’s more activity than there actually is. In low-volume markets, this kind of manipulation is easier to pull off, and it can have a big impact on price movements.

Van Code also believes the role of trading bots, operated by Binance VIP customers, are also a big part of the problem. These bots have access to millisecond-level trading data, giving them an unfair advantage over retail investors. They can see and react to orders before most people even have a chance to click buy or sell. This allows them to manipulate prices. Van Code doesn’t actually accuse Binance of directly engaging in manipulation, but he does think that the exchange creates an environment where these practices thrive. That’s just one potential tid-bit and you could argue that it too is erring on the side of conspiracy. But it’s worth keeping in mind!

Other XRP influencers have speculated that institutions are deliberately suppressing the price to accumulate more XRP at lower levels. But Van Code isn’t buying it. He thinks that the price movements we’re seeing are the result of typical market mechanics. There’s shorts, longs, dumps, pumps, trade dusting, and arbitrage. There’s no grand conspiracy, just traders trying to make a profit. So that’s potential side of it.

Then you have the analysts that believe that the SEC dropping the case was already ‘priced in’. That is to say that the market expected this to happen, so people bought in accordingly. Then by the time the case was dropped, everyone who wanted in, was already in! This is why we see a lackluster reaction to the case being dropped. 

Then there’s EGRAG CRYPTO!

EGRAG thinks this is just the start of a bigger bull market, and things are moving slower this time around compared to the crazy ups and downs of 2017. He’s also optimistic about XRP specifically, because he thinks big institutions are going to jump in soon, especially now that the case has been dropped. Think about it, if you’re a big company with lots of shareholders to keep happy, are you going to invest in something that is being sued by the US government? Exactly. 

And it’s worth pointing out that it isn’t just XRP. The whole crypto market is feeling the pressure from bigger economic stuff. Like the trade war thing going on with the US, slapping tariffs on countries like China and Canada. That’s just one thing making people nervous, so they’re putting their money into safer stuff like gold or government bonds instead of risky assets like crypto.

Then there’s the US Federal Reserve, they aren’t helping either. They’ve decided to keep interest rates high because inflation is still a problem, and they’re worried about a recession. When the Fed does that, it makes borrowing money more expensive, which can slow down spending and hurt riskier investments like crypto.

So, even though Ripple’s legal win was a big deal, it’s not enough to make XRP skyrocket (right now). But that doesn’t take away from just how important this case being wrapped up is. The market’s dealing with a lot of other stuff, and it’s moving slower than people expected. But the key takeaway from the professionals is, “Don’t freak out”.

And the key takeaway from us?

Don’t try to out trade the bots, don’t get distracted by the noise, and focus on the long term hold. In crypto, and basically all investing ever, patience pays off.

One more thing before we wrap up, let’s go completely off topic and talk about Netflix for a moment. There was a stage when Netflix was the only real streaming service around. Sure, there were some other smaller ones but they didn’t have anything close to the market share that Netflix did. Few of us will remember, but Netflix had to jump through a lot of legal hurdles to get that market dominance, and it took them years to put all the pieces together. They had people signing deals, jumping through hoops, buying rights to this and acquiring agreements to that. They started in America, then expanded South, then moved into Europe and before you knew it, they were everywhere - the king of streaming.

While Ripple was being sued by the SEC, they have been doing the exact same thing. They have been signing contracts with governments, acquiring vital licenses and putting in the legwork to make sure that XRP doesn’t just survive, but absolutely kills it in the future.

Food for thought.