Good morning. In 1992, George Soros famously shorted the British pound on “Black Wednesday,” forcing the UK out of the ERM and making over $1 billion in a single day.
It remains one of the most legendary macro trades ever, and a defining moment in currency history.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
GOLD CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY
Gold continues its steady climb this morning as price rides a clean ascending channel on both the 15-min and 1-hour charts.
MARKET ANALYSIS
The Setup on Gold Is Too Clean to Ignore
Gold is waking up again and honestly, this setup is too clean to pretend we don’t see it. Price bounced perfectly off the trendline + 50 SMA area last week, held structure like a champ, and now we’re pushing into fresh two-week highs.
And the timing couldn’t be better.
The market is suddenly leaning hard into December Fed rate-cut bets, the dollar slipped to a one-week low, and sentiment is shifting just enough to give gold some breathing room.
So today’s move isn’t random. It’s the market quietly positioning ahead of the next wave of U.S. data.
Let’s break this down trader-to-trader.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. Fed Dovish Tone Gives Gold the Upper Hand
Tuesday’s data showed cooling inflation, giving the Fed more space to cut again in December. Several Fed members openly supported another rate cut.
When the dollar weakens, gold doesn’t hesitate. That’s exactly what we’re seeing: renewed buying, steady momentum, and price reclaiming the $4,160 area.
2. Dollar Weakness + Mild Risk-On Mood Creates a Tug-of-War
The USD dipped as rate-cut expectations grew, but global risk sentiment is actually positive right now.
Equities are up, and even hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks are floating around.
This creates a weird mix: gold gets support from dollar softness, but upside slows when investors chase risk assets. Still, directionally, gold is holding strong.
3. The Chart Supports Further Upside, If We Break Cleanly
Gold defended the trendline and the 50 SMA beautifully.
Now we’re squeezing inside that triangle on the daily chart and the breakout path still leans upward.
A clean move above $4,160–$4,178 opens the door to $4,200, then potentially the monthly high around $4,245.
Downside support sits at $4,110–$4,100, then $4,034, and last line at $4,000.
My Takeaway
Gold isn’t exploding, but it’s showing real structure, real demand, and real reason to keep watching.
As long as the market believes a December Fed cut is coming, dips on gold will attract buyers.
Today’s job isn’t to be a hero it’s to read the levels and let the breakout tell you the truth.
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FOREX
USD Weakness Could Be Coming Back
The U.S. dollar has been on a strong run for weeks, fuelled by safe-haven flows and uncertainty around the government shutdown.
But that narrative may be turning.
Two major macro signals flipped this week, and if you’ve been waiting for the next USD down-leg, this is the cleanest setup we’ve had in a while.
The Market Is Pricing an Aggressive Fed Ease (Again)
The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 87% probability of a rate cut in 15 days, the highest easing probability since the government shutdown ended.
That’s a huge shift.
Why it matters:
When the market aggressively prices cuts, the USD typically weakens.
Lower yields mean the USD loses its interest-rate advantage.
Traders begin rotating out of USD longs and into higher-beta FX.
This aligns with the broader theme in recent notes: markets are increasingly sensitive to forward guidance, not just the official rate announcements.
If the Fed hints at more cuts ahead, or even shows concern about the labor market, USD sellers may have their moment.
Today’s U.S. Data Did Not Help the Dollar
Today’s numbers were mixed — but importantly, the parts the Fed cares about softened.
Here’s the breakdown:
Core PPI m/m: 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
Retail Sales m/m: 0.2% (forecast 0.4%)
CB Consumer Confidence: 88.7 (forecast 93.4)
Pending Home Sales: 1.9% (forecast 0.5%)
We have to remember the Fed has been flying blind due to the shutdown. Now the data has been coming out again and it's showing signs of weakness again.
USDCNH Is Dropping… and That’s a Big USD Bearish Signal
USDCNH hit fresh lows again this week.
Historically:
USDCNH ↓ = USD weakness globally
USDCNH ↑ = broad USD strength
Why? Because China’s currency is the foundation of global dollar liquidity and EM flows. When the yuan strengthens, capital tends to shift into risk-on assets not the dollar.
This correlation is especially strong for AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD.
WATCH
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“Strong traders aren’t the ones who avoid emotion, they’re the ones who don’t trade with it.” You can feel fear, doubt, excitement, or pressure, but the moment those feelings start making decisions for you, your edge disappears. The skill is staying calm enough to let your rules speak louder than your reactions.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (NOVEMBER 26, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled a potential interest-rate hike as soon as next month, shifting market focus back to inflation risks after a period of yen weakness.(source:reuters)
GAMES
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ANSWER
Answer: Risk-to-reward ratio (R:R)