Good morning. In the 1700s, stock trading in London took place in coffee shops, not exchanges. The most famous? Jonathan’s Coffee House, where traders swapped shares over espresso.

Turns out caffeine-fueled trades have always been a thing.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Pat Lewis

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

Most traders spend years learning candlestick patterns, understanding macroeconomics, and arguing about Fibonacci tools. But one content creator asked a question no one dared to ask:

Yes, you read that right.

I stumbled across this video series launched by the account @propfirmkid on Instagram where he lets his pet chicken make trading decisions.

Surprisingly to most the chicken is in profit and is about to complete a $100,000 prop firm challenge.

It got me thinking, why is this working, and what is teaches us about trading?

Here’s how the experiment works. The chicken’s reward is some mealworms in front of placeholders depicting certain choices to trade XAU/USD (gold).

The choices are as followed:

1. Trading Session (e.g. London, New York or Asia)

2. Take Profit and Stop Loss in dollar increments (e.g. $9, $5, $10)

3. Buy or Sell

The chicken would literally walk up to a bowl with the choices and eat the treat which was the decision maker.

Once the chicken made their choice, the @propfirmkid would place the trade on the funded prop trading account challenge.

No interventions, no cutting the trade early, just full faith in the bird.

What makes this so interesting is that the chicken doesn’t really have an edge. It has no idea what FOMC stands for, doesn’t care about CPI or support and resistance.

Yet is still managed to win a few trades. Why?

It’s simple, because markets are often unpredictable, especially in the short term. Price doesn’t always move rationally, and a chicken pecking at trade parameters is a hilarious reminder that randomness plays a role in the market.

Ok, it’s not like the chicken came up with this, but the @propfirmkid set rules around their trades:

1. The chicken could only trade gold.

2. Trades were entered on a market session open.

3. Risk and reward were always defined upfront.

4. Only 1 trade a day, and no intervening in the trade.

There was no guessing, it was just randomly choosing within a given framework.

This is where the magic happened. Because even though the decisions were random, the system wasn’t.

You may think I am mad for asking the question, but the whole article could be considered a little wild. And no, you shouldn’t hand your trading account to a chicken, but here are some key takeaways:

1. A consistent process beats a perfect prediction.

2. Simplicity is key.

3. Emotional detachment, the chicken held its nerve.

4. Trust the process, even if it seems a little irrational.

Only joking, but why not try back testing a simple consistent strategy this week? Limit the number of trades, define your risk, and remove emotion (easier said than done, I know).

But if you want a laugh (and maybe a few trading insights), check out the full video series from the @propfirmkid on Instagram.

Quick FYI: I do not know the account holder of @propfirmkid or am I affiliated in anyway, I just stumbled on to the video. Please do your own research, and never follow anyone without doing due dilligence.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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NEWS

It’s not just missed trades that sting, it’s the ones that almost happened. Like that nearly-perfect USD setup that missed by a pip, or in this case… the Fed rate cuts we never got.

Powell just confirmed what many traders suspected: we could’ve been trading in a lower interest rate world if not for Trump’s tariffs.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers that tariffs, especially the scope of them, are the main reason rates are still elevated. If it weren’t for Trump’s aggressive trade policy, the Fed might have cut rates twice by now.

Think about that: instead of holding at 4.25%–4.50%, the fed funds rate could be near 3.75%. That’s a different trading environment entirely, one that would shift everything from bond yields to USD direction.

Powell implied that without tariffs, inflation expectations would’ve stayed anchored. That means traders might be pricing in more cuts already, instead of this drawn-out ‘wait and see’ Fed posture.

But here’s the irony: Trump’s broader economic agenda, tax cuts, deregulation, could’ve sparked inflation too if left unchecked. So even if the tariffs weren’t in play, rate cuts weren’t guaranteed.

Also moving the needle this week: Trump’s massive $3.3 trillion economic bill narrowly cleared the Senate, thanks to VP JD Vance’s tiebreaker. That’s fueling mixed expectations, more growth, yes, but also more debt.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s bond chief Rick Rieder says this is a “generational opportunity” for fixed income traders. With yields still relatively elevated, he sees the bond market as packed with asymmetric upside.

For us FX traders, this is where things really sting. The U.S. dollar remains pinned near multi-month lows, not because of actual rate cuts, but because of the expectation of what could’ve been. The DXY continues to hover near 96.7, while pairs like USD/JPY and USD/CAD are wobbling on weak footing.

Had Powell cut rates already, we’d likely see a more decisive unwind in USD longs. Instead, the forex market is trading in limbo, torn between dovish guidance and inflation roadblocks. Until there’s clarity, expect choppy, whipsaw-heavy price action.

If it weren’t for tariffs, you might be trading in a 3-handle interest rate world right now. Powell made it clear: Trump’s trade aggression is the reason cuts aren’t on the table yet.

That’s a critical macro piece for us traders. As long as tariffs fuel inflation risk, the Fed’s dovish hands are tied.

Let’s keep an eye on Friday’s NFP. It could shake the markets again, but until then, don’t bet on the “what could’ve been.” Trade the policy we actually have.

-Shaun A

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