Good morning. In 2010, the U.S. stock market experienced the infamous Flash Crash, where the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points in 10 minutes, then bounced back just as fast.

It was so wild, some traders thought their platforms were broken. Turns out, it was just the algos having a meltdown.

-Pat Lewis, Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler

MARKETS

How’s your favorite today?

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

CRYPTO

Cardano Printing Massive Gains

The market's attention is scattered at the moment. Everyone is, quite rightly, looking at a lot of different projects, as just about everything in the top 10 flashes green. One token in particular however, is making a really strong case for Investors looking to get in on even more profits. Cardano has rocketed 15% in just 24 hours, accompanied by a staggering $1.72 billion in daily trading volume, outperforming every other top 10 cryptocurrency. At time of writing, ADA has surged to $0.77, though as always in crypto's volatile environment, these levels could shift dramatically in coming hours.

This explosive move comes as Bitcoin stabilizes above $117,000, creating the perfect conditions for altcoins like Cardano to capture investor interest. But ADA's rally isn't just another altcoin pump, it's being driven by concrete developments that suggest this could be the beginning of a more sustained upward trend.

Market voyeurs point to two major catalysts behind Cardano's sudden ascent. First, Argentina's recent adoption of Cardano for its first government-recognized smart contract implementation has validated the blockchain's real-world utility. Second, unmistakable whale activity shows deep-pocketed investors are accumulating ADA at an accelerated pace.

Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson couldn't resist highlighting the network's resilience, referencing critics who once claimed large ADA trades would crash the market. "Remember when we were told that a 100-million-dollar trade of ADA would collapse the price?" he posted on X.

The data supports Hoskinson's point. Over the past two weeks, whales holding between 1-10 million ADA have scooped up 120 million additional tokens, a $71 million investment that brings their total holdings to 5.57 billion ADA, representing 15.4% of the total supply. This accumulation pattern suggests institutional players are positioning for longer-term growth rather than short-term speculation.

Fundamental developments are matching the technical bullishness. The Cardano Foundation recently announced a $22.1 million ecosystem investment for 2024, marking a 15% increase from last year's development budget. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket now assigns an 89% chance of a U.S. spot ADA ETF approval this year, a stunning vote of confidence from the crypto community.

Technical analysts are drawing parallels to previous ADA breakouts that led to massive rallies. Ali Martinez points out that the last time ADA tested the $0.54 support level, it subsequently surged 50%. "It's happening again," Martinez notes, predicting a spike to $0.84 if buying pressure continues.

Even more bullish is analyst Deezy's observation that ADA is testing its 50-week exponential moving average, a critical technical level that preceded historical gains of 212% and 128% in prior cycles. If this pattern repeats, we could see ADA challenge the psychologically important $1 level and potentially reach as high as $1.77.

What makes this rally particularly noteworthy is its timing. Coming amid Bitcoin's consolidation, it suggests investors may be rotating into high-potential altcoins while the market leader takes a breather. The Argentina smart contract milestone provides fundamental justification for the move, distinguishing it from pure speculation-driven pumps.

As always in these markets, caution remains your top priority. While the technical and fundamental setups appear strong, ADA's price remains vulnerable to broader market sentiment shifts. Should Bitcoin experience sudden volatility or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, Cardano's rally could face headwinds. For now, however, Cardano finds itself in the market's spotlight, with whales accumulating, developers building, and traders watching closely to see if this is indeed the beginning of ADA's long-predicted breakout toward dollar parity and beyond. The coming days will reveal whether this surge represents a temporary spike or the early stages of Cardano's next major growth phase.

FOREX

USD/JPY Enters New Territory

The Japanese Yen has had a shaky start to the week, clawing back some losses but still hovering near a multi-week low against the U.S. dollar. Risk appetite took a hit after President Trump lobbed another trade grenade over the weekend, threatening fresh 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU starting August 1.

That escalation has traders flocking to safe-haven assets like the Yen, but ironically, the very trade uncertainty that supports JPY is also tempering expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Toss in Japan’s own political jitters and a Fed that isn’t in a hurry to cut, and the USD/JPY pair remains stuck in a tug-of-war.

Here’s what you need to know and watch:

1. Tariff Turbulence Boosts Yen, But Not Enough

The Japanese Yen got a brief lift from renewed safe-haven flows after Trump’s latest tariff letters hit over the weekend. But don’t get too excited. This move was limited. Traders still aren’t going all-in on JPY because Japan is one of the tariff targets, and the broader global slowdown could hurt its already fragile economy.

2. BoJ Rate Hike Odds Are Slipping

With inflation cooling, real wages declining, and now the risk of a deeper trade war, the Bank of Japan is under less pressure to hike. Markets had been pricing in some tightening this year, but the odds are shrinking fast. Add in political noise before Japan’s upper house elections on July 20, and the BoJ may prefer to sit tight.

3. USD/JPY Stays Buoyant on Fed Pause

The U.S. dollar isn’t giving up much ground either. Traders are now rethinking how aggressive the Fed can be with rate cuts, especially if U.S. inflation remains sticky and the labor market holds up. That’s keeping USD/JPY elevated, even as JPY tries to benefit from risk-off flows.

4. Technical Picture: Breakout Confirmed, Bulls Still in Control

USD/JPY has broken out of the descending triangle that capped price since April, flipping the 146.50–147.00 zone into support. Price is now holding above the 50-day SMA at 144.85, a level that previously acted as dynamic resistance, now a solid base for bulls to lean on.

Momentum is firmer this time compared to the failed rallies in April and May. The pair is re-testing the 148.30–148.60 resistance cluster. A clean break above that could open the door to 148.90 and possibly 149.60. On the downside, watch for dip buying at 146.50, 145.00, and the 144.85 SMA.

Here’s the Takeaway:

Trump’s tariff threats have reignited global uncertainty, but they’ve also complicated the narrative for the Yen. JPY may get bouts of strength from risk-off flows, but don’t expect fireworks unless the BoJ surprises or the Fed pivots hard. For now, USD/JPY is a story of cautious bulls and nervous bears, and that could mean more range-bound chop before the next big move.

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