Good morning. In 2014, a Japanese day trader known as the “Mister of the Nikkei” made $34 million in one day—during a flash crash—from his bedroom.

No hedge fund. No Wall Street desk. Just fast fingers and a lot of caffeine.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Pat Lewis, Shaun A

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

If you are like me (based in the UK) you may have woke up this morning to a surprise from the RBA, impacting the Aussie dollar. The RBA left rates unchanged, which was a shock to most traders.

The Aussie economy has been showing signs of pressure, higher mortgage rates, soft consumer sentiment and the property market woes, pointed to some stimulus coming.

However, the Reserve Bank of Australia focused on the sticky inflation numbers instead.

Inflation failing to fall below 2.5% was the pain point for the RBA.

Without this consistently moving lower, the RBA may be forced to hold rates higher.

The AUD/USD price and most of the AUD crosses shot higher on the data, and throughout the trading session today, little has changed.

AUD/JPY is the standout gaining 0.92% on the day.

It’s important to understand why this is bullish for the currency.

FX largely works on interest rates differentials or at least contrasts between central banks.

This hold by the RBA differs from policy by the RBNZ or the BoC who lean more on the dovish side.

This could give me the opportunity to trade.

The battle of the antipodeans shows the Aussie in control.

On the chart we can see the price has broken out of a triangle consolidation pattern as is aiming for the recent May 2025 highs.

A break above this level could suggest a move into the higher volume levels found around 1.1000.

This is one I will be keeping a very close eye on, especially if inflation remains sticky in Australia.

To summarise:

RBA held rates – surprising markets expecting a cut.
Inflation remains sticky – giving the RBA reason to stay hawkish.
AUD rallied – particularly against NZD and JPY, with AUD/JPY up nearly 1% on the day.
Central bank divergence – RBA is holding firm while RBNZ and BoC lean dovish.
AUD/NZD broke higher – bullish technical breakout, eyeing 1.1000 as next resistance.

Whether this will be sustainable, we will have to wait for further data. What’s for sure is that the RBA want to see inflation lower to cut rates more confidently.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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CRYPTO

XRP holders and the broader market is eager to see the outcome of an upcoming hearing in Washington, as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse prepares to bring the company’s hard-fought regulatory battle directly to Capitol Hill. His scheduled testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday represents a huge moment not just for XRP, but for the entire digital asset industry's relationship with Washington regulators. Garlinghouse has been relentlessly championing both XRP and all of crypto, speaking with law and policy makers for years about moving crypto in the United States forward.

The hearing, titled "From Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow's Digital Asset Markets," comes at a crucial time when lawmakers are grappling with how to regulate an asset class that defies traditional financial classifications. Garlinghouse's remarks are designed to strike at the heart of this challenge, framing Ripple's four-year legal odyssey with the SEC as emblematic of the regulatory uncertainty stifling American innovation in blockchain technology.

"The U.S. risks losing its competitive edge in financial technology because of this regulatory ambiguity," Garlinghouse said in his testimony, pointing to Ripple's expansion overseas as evidence. His appearance carries particular weight given recent developments in the case, including the possibility of the SEC dropping its appeal, a move that could come as soon as Thursday's closed-door commission meeting.

Market analysts are keeping their eyes firmly peeled on these developments with keen interest. "The SEC's decision on whether to continue its appeal will send powerful signals to institutional investors," said Marcus Thielen, head of research at CryptoQuant. "A withdrawal would essentially validate XRP's non-security status and could open floodgates for institutional adoption."

This regulatory clarity could prove especially timely given recent movements in the ETF space. The approval of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund and the filing by Truth Social for their crypto ETF, both including XRP in their baskets, demonstrate growing mainstream acceptance. While these aren't pure XRP ETFs, they represent significant steps toward broader crypto acceptance in traditional finance.

On the technical front, XRP's price action shows a cryptocurrency at a crossroads. After establishing strong support around $2.20, the digital asset has been consolidating in a tightening range.
"The $2.35 level is our immediate line in the sand," explained veteran trader Peter Brandt. "A convincing break above that could trigger algorithmic buying and propel us toward the May highs, while failure to hold $2.20 might see a retest of the 200-day moving average."

Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop adds yet another layer of complexity. With Bitcoin flirting with $110,000 and the total crypto market cap surpassing $3.3 trillion, the sector is showing remarkable resilience despite regulatory headwinds. This strength suggests that positive developments for XRP could be amplified by broader market momentum.

Looking beyond immediate price action, the implications of this week's events could reshape the crypto landscape for years to come. A favorable outcome for Ripple might encourage other blockchain firms to more aggressively challenge regulatory overreach, while continued uncertainty could accelerate the industry's shift toward more crypto-friendly jurisdictions.

As the crypto community watches Washington this week, the stakes couldn't be higher. For XRP holders, the potential rewards are significant, but so are the risks if regulatory progress stalls. One thing is certain: the decisions made in the coming days will reverberate far beyond Ripple's corporate headquarters, potentially determining whether the U.S. embraces blockchain innovation or cedes leadership to global competitors.

-Pat Lewis

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