Good Morning. The first recorded financial bubble? Tulips. In the 1630s, tulip bulbs in the Netherlands sold for more than houses. One bulb could cost 10 times a craftsman’s annual wage. The bubble popped in 1637 and people still use "tulip mania" today to describe asset bubbles.
So if someone tells you Dogecoin was wild… show them a flower.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor, Shaun A
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
The 10-Minute Morning Routine That Gives Forex Traders an Unfair Advantage
Many forex traders rely solely on trading charts, but real edge in my opinion comes from understanding the economic drivers behind currency moves.
Being more interested in the economic drivers can help you mitigate risk in the markets, and even stay in the trade when many other traders get out.
Today I will discuss my morning trading routine that sets me up for the day and takes all of 5-10 minutes to complete, and it’s all free.
Let’s get started.
1. Economic Calendar Check
The first thing I do is open up the economic calendar. Here I can view what data is coming up for the day and what markets it will impact.
I can also look at what news has been released. Being from the UK we often see data out of China, Australia, New Zealand and Japan released through the night, so it’s important to catch up on any of those releases.
I want to find out here if the data coming up is important and if there’s anything that will impact my trade ideas or trades that I am currently involved in.
Some economic calendars I use:
2. News Information
The next thing I like to do is check up on any headlines I may have missed that does not appear on economic calendars.
This may be something like a Trump truth social post or something that is of geo-political risk. These events aren’t on the traditional economic calendars, so we have to use other sources for this information.
Social media can be a great tool for this, I am not a huge fan of twitter or X but for headline news it can be fairly good. One twitter account I like to use is Financial Juice. They release everything from key headlines to data releases. They also have a website that does the same thing and offers free squark that works in the background and announces data as it comes through.
Forex Live is also a great resource for financial information, the website is a little clunky for my liking but the information is always great in my opinion.
3. Market sentiment analysis
Next we flick through the charts, not to find a trade but to read sentiment.
What is the VIX (volatility index) doing? Is it spiking? This gives me a sense of the tone of the market. If the VIX is spiking that would tell me the market is in risk off mode and we would likely see JPY rallies and Stocks lower.
I also take a look at the changes in the currencies and the bond yields, if the US bond yields are rallying then we can often see USD strength, so I can see if the market is buying or selling USD’s pretty quickly.
Final thoughts
This simple 3 step process that I follow, helps me understand where the market will be for the day, what storyline is driving sentiment and what upcoming data I need to be aware of.
This keeps me well informed and also gives me confidence knowing that I am prepared for most market situations.
Hope this one helps!
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MARKET ANALYSIS
Why the Courts Aren’t Buying Trump’s Tariff Tactics
If you’ve been watching markets react to Trump’s tariff games like it’s a sport, pump-fake, threat, walk-back, bounce, this latest twist just changed the rules. On Wednesday, a U.S. federal court ruled that President Trump overstepped his legal bounds with his sweeping “reciprocal” tariff orders.
This just shows how one of his favorite market-moving tools just got benched.
Here’s What You Actually Need to Know About This Tariff Ruling:
1. The Court Just Blocked Trump's Authority to Set Tariffs Unilaterally
This is a big deal. Until now, Trump used tariffs like a poker chip, threaten them, negotiate, then deal. Now? His bluff might get called in court.
2. This Undermines the Whole "Reciprocal" Tariff Doctrine
Trump’s idea was simple: if Country X charges 50% on U.S. goods, the U.S. should charge 50% back. Sounds tough, but the legal system just said that doesn’t fly without Congressional approval.
It’s not just about this case, it sets precedent. Which means future presidents can’t just pick tariff numbers out of a hat.
3. Traders Are Watching This Like a Hawk Especially Ahead of Election Season
With Trump likely to campaign hard on trade and strong economic nationalism, this legal loss hits a core pillar of his policy playbook. If courts keep interfering, expect more volatility on tariff-related headlines, and more second-guessing in the markets.
4. The "TACO Theory" Got Aired Out And Trump Isn’t Happy
Traders and analysts have dubbed it the "TACO theory" Trump Announces, Crashes markets, then Optimizes (or backs off). The media pressed Trump about this, and he waved it off: “It’s called negotiation.”
Cute spin, but the court clearly didn’t buy it. Neither should traders who’ve been whiplashed by the on-again, off-again tariff threats.
5. This Isn’t Just Legal Dram, It’s Market Structure Fuel
Every time tariffs are floated, then pulled, it creates massive short-term moves in sectors like metals, autos, tech, and agriculture. If the legal system clamps down on tariff threats, that noise could calm, or Trump could escalate other ways.
Either way, expect capital to shift based on perceived leverage. Watch volatility indexes, bond yields, and sector ETFs tied to global trade.
Here’s the Takeaway:
Tariffs used to be a weapon. Now they might be a legal liability.
For us traders? That’s a shift in volatility dynamics. Less bluff, more structure.
This court ruling may not stop Trump from trying again, but it does mean the legal guardrails are up. And when policy gets handcuffed, price action changes.
So next time Trump hits Truth Social with a tariff bomb, don’t just watch the headline, check the legal footing. Because this time, the market might not flinch if the courts are already loading the counterpunch.
Keep your head on a swivel and your stops tight.
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GAMES
Trading Quiz
I'm tied to growth, yet I don’t grow.
When rates rise, I often slow.
I shine in panic, fall in glee,
Central banks keep eyes on me.
👉 What asset am I?
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🦖 Understand how Market Makers work.
ANSWER
Answer: Gold