Good morning. The NYSE once had a dress code so strict, traders couldn’t enter without a suit and tie, even during heat waves with no A/C.

Imagine trying to catch a breakout while melting in wool. Now that’s real sweat equity.

-Pat Lewis, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

CRYPTO

Ethereum just had one of its best days in recent memory, surging 8% to hit $2,601 as institutional interest in the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency continues to heat up. The rally comes at a seriously important moment for ETH, with spot Ethereum ETFs finally live and major players like Robinhood doubling down on Ethereum’s ecosystem. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes we might just be at the beginning of a much bigger move, one that could redefine how traditional investors view Ethereum in the second half of 2025.

When the SEC finally approved spot Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, the initial reaction was somewhat muted compared to Bitcoin’s ETF frenzy. But according to Hougan, that’s about to change, and in a big way. In a recent tweet, he pointed out that Ethereum ETFs pulled in a solid $1.17 billion in net inflows in June alone, and he believes that number could accelerate dramatically as more institutional investors wake up to Ethereum’s unique value proposition.

Part of the reason for this optimism comes down to Ethereum’s evolving role in finance. Unlike Bitcoin, which is often seen purely as "digital gold," ETH is increasingly becoming the backbone of tokenized assets, everything from stablecoins to real-world stocks. This narrative is starting to resonate with traditional investors who are looking beyond just speculative trading and into the practical utility of blockchain technology.

Hougan’s argument is basically: as more financial assets move onto Ethereum’s blockchain, the case for holding ETH becomes stronger. Which is pretty standard really. And with ETFs now providing an easy on-ramp for big-money players, the floodgates could open in a way we haven’t seen before.

Adding fuel to the fire, Robinhood, the trading app that brought millions of retail investors into crypto, just confirmed it’s building its own Layer-2 blockchain on Arbitrum, one of Ethereum’s most popular scaling solutions. Dubbed "Robinhood Chain," this new network is designed to support tokenized stocks and other real-world assets, effectively bridging traditional finance with decentralized applications.

While Robinhood hasn’t given a firm timeline for launch, the mere announcement is a huge vote of confidence in Ethereum’s infrastructure. The Ethereum Foundation even chimed in with a cheeky response: "Ethereum is for tokenized stocks."

This isn’t just hype either, it’s a sign of where the industry is heading. Layer-2 solutions like Arbitrum are already handling a massive chunk of Ethereum’s transaction volume, making the network faster and cheaper to use. If Robinhood can successfully bring mainstream assets like stocks onto Ethereum, it could trigger a wave of adoption that goes far beyond what we’ve seen so far.

From a trading perspective, Ethereum’s recent breakout looks particularly strong. After consolidating between $2,380 and $2,460 for about 16 hours, ETH finally broke out with conviction, climbing all the way to $2,601 on significantly higher-than-average volume.

What’s encouraging is how the price action played out. Despite some profit-taking along the way, buyers maintained control, establishing strong support around $2,550. The fact that ETH closed near its daily highs suggests there’s still plenty of momentum left in this move.

One often-overlooked factor working in Ethereum’s favor is its supply dynamics. With nearly 30% of all ETH currently locked in staking contracts, the available supply on exchanges is shrinking, just as demand from ETFs and institutional investors is ramping up. This supply squeeze could become even more pronounced if ETH’s price continues to climb, creating a feedback loop that pushes prices higher.

Add in the fact that Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystems are booming (Arbitrum, Optimism, and others are processing more transactions than ever), and it’s clear that Ethereum is no longer just a speculative asset. It’s becoming the foundation for a new financial system, one where stocks, bonds, and even everyday transactions happen on-chain.

If Hougan’s prediction holds, the second half of 2025 could be Ethereum’s time to shine. With spot ETFs attracting billions, Robinhood building on Arbitrum, and tokenized assets gaining traction, ETH is no longer just "the other crypto." It’s emerging as the backbone of a new era in finance, one where traditional and decentralized systems merge in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

For traders, the key levels to watch are $2,550 (support) and $2,800 (resistance). A clean break above $2,800 could signal the start of a much larger rally, especially if ETF inflows continue to accelerate.

But perhaps the bigger takeaway is this: Ethereum isn’t just riding Bitcoin’s coattails anymore. It’s carving out its own path, one that could redefine how the world thinks about blockchain technology. And if the last few days are any indication, that path might just lead to some explosive growth in the months ahead. So buckle up! If you thought Ethereum’s run was impressive so far, you might want to keep a close eye on what happens next.

-Pat Lewis

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Gold’s been drifting sideways since April and this time, it’s more than just safe-haven noise.

With Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) looming, XAU/USD is hovering near $3,350, squeezed between weak labor signals and Trump’s tax bomb that could stoke fresh inflation.

Wednesday’s ADP print showed a shocker: instead of the expected 99,000 job gain, the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs. That’s the kind of miss that raises eyebrows and gold bids.

As a leading indicator for NFP, the ADP miss has traders bracing for more softness in the labor market. If Friday confirms it, rate cut bets will ramp up, and bullion could finally break higher.

Economists expect Friday’s NFP to come in at 111,000, down from May’s 139,000. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.

More job market weakness? That’s fuel for gold bulls. With non-yielding assets like gold thriving in low-rate environments, any signal of economic slowdown or Fed dovishness keeps XAU/USD supported.

At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach. “Meeting by meeting,” he said, meaning September’s still wide open for a cut.

That cautious stance didn’t slam the door on easing. And with job data softening and inflation plateauing, traders see a growing case for a cut within two months. That’s quietly bullish for gold.

The $3.3 trillion “Big Beautiful Bill” cleared the Senate and now heads to the House. It’s massive, controversial, and likely to weigh on the dollar if passed.

With critics, including Elon Musk, calling it inflationary, the legislation adds another layer of uncertainty. If passed by July 4, it could trigger more USD downside and strengthen the case for gold as a hedge.

Gold (XAU/USD) is pressing just above the 50-day SMA near $3,350, but momentum remains capped below key resistance between $3,370 and $3,426. The zone has rejected multiple upside attempts since April, and until that ceiling gives way, price action remains range-bound and cautious.

Price continues to lean on a rising trendline support that’s been respected since mid-April, intersecting with the 50-day SMA around $3,322. That level, alongside the psychological $3,300 mark, remains the first line of defense for bulls.

Gold’s taking a breather, but it’s not sleeping. With ADP already flashing weakness and NFP on deck, the market’s holding its breath. Add Trump’s inflation-heavy tax plan and Powell’s slow nod toward September cuts, and you’ve got a powder keg.

For now, $3,350 is the battleground. If NFP misses, don’t be surprised if bulls charge for $3,400 and beyond. If not, it’s back to the range grind, until the next spark.

-Shaun A

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Answer: The VIX (Volatility Index)