Good morning. In 1637, the Dutch Tulip Mania collapsed, tulip bulbs that once sold for the price of a house suddenly became nearly worthless overnight.

It’s often remembered as the first recorded market bubble… and proof that hype has an expiration date.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

Markets stutter, screens begin to flash red, and we all sit here asking the same question. 

Where the hell is the trading opportunity now?

Let me introduce you to the safe havens. These are the assets traders run to when the market feels all out of sorts. But not all safe havens benefit from uncertainty at the same time. 

Think of it like this. When the road is dry you're more likely to put your foot down on the gas a little more, brake a little later, take a little more risk. But when the rain comes in, the road gets slippery, you don’t want to push it, you slow down and take less risks. 

Safe havens are where traders go when they want to take less risk.

Depending on the type or level of risk will often determine which currency or asset gets the safe haven headwinds. 

With political unrest between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, the USD is losing some of its safe haven resilience. The Fed is expected to cut rates in September and this adds to the USD bearish fundamentals, but if Trump begins to fire Fed members it could bring fresh uncertainty and no one really wants to touch the US dollar in that situation.

The top performers of late have been the Swiss Franc, Gold and the Japanese Yen. The Swissy (CHF) is considered the European safe haven, but with the USD under pressure it has been one of the strongest currencies. The Japanese Yen would be the natural currency for traders to shift into, but the BoJ could hike rates narrowing that yield spread further. 

Different market dynamics can push money into different markets. Not all the usual suspects will get the same treatment so it’s important to watch where the flows are. The easiest thing to do is open up the charts and look for the biggest movers and when they happen.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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MARKET ANALYSIS

Gold slipped back on Wednesday during early European trading, pulling away from a two-week high near $3,395. Sellers moved in to take profits, while a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar added weight to the move.

Even so, the downside looks cushioned as political pressure on the Federal Reserve keeps investors wary and safe-haven demand alive.

1. Profit-Taking After the Rally

Gold’s recent climb above $3,390 attracted profit-taking, and the pullback shouldn’t come as a surprise. After a strong run in August, some traders are cashing in while waiting for fresh catalysts.

2. Dollar Strength Returns

The U.S. dollar found support after slipping earlier this week. The rebound is modest, but enough to pressure non-yielding assets like gold. With traders cautious ahead of key U.S. data, the dollar index has steadied near recent highs.

3. Fed Independence Under Fire

Markets are closely following the political standoff between President Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Trump’s push to remove Cook has sparked a legal fight and raised doubts over the Fed’s independence. Safe-haven flows often find their way into gold when the credibility of central banks is questioned, making this story one to watch.

4. Rate Cut Bets Still Rising

Despite the noise, rate expectations lean dovish. Powell signaled earlier that risks to jobs are increasing, and markets now price in an 87.3% chance of a September rate cut, up from 75% last week. Lower rates typically weaken the dollar and boost gold, keeping bulls interested in buying dips.

5. Technical Picture

Gold remains locked in a $3,300–$3,400 range, with buyers defending the mid-$3,300s and sellers repeatedly capping rallies near $3,400–$3,426. The chart shows price still trading above key trend markers, the rising moving average and ascending trendline, keeping the broader outlook constructive. As long as gold holds above the $3,330–$3,346 support zone, momentum leans in favor of the bulls.

On the upside, clearing the $3,400–$3,426 ceiling would expose $3,439 and reopen the path toward the major $3,500 all-time high zone. On the flip side, a sustained drop below $3,330–$3,327 would test $3,300 support, and losing that floor could shift the focus down to $3,167. Until then, the path of least resistance stays tilted upward.

Gold’s dip looks more like healthy profit-taking than a trend reversal. The dollar is steady, but Fed independence concerns and firm rate-cut bets mean gold still has strong support.

It’s worth to watch $3,325 as a near-term floor and $3,400 as the ceiling. Powell’s next signals, along with Friday’s PCE data, could be the catalyst that sets the next big move.

-Shaun A

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