Good Morning. The first futures contract was written over 4,000 years ago. In ancient Mesopotamia, farmers and merchants used clay tablets to lock in grain prices before harvest, essentially creating the earliest futures market.
So next time someone says derivatives are “too modern,” remind them it started with a donkey and a cuneiform tablet.
-Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor, Shaun A
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
Market Analysis
I Was Wrong About GBP
The British Pound has been showing underlying strength in recent months, I’m looking for opportunities to buy GBP against weaker currencies. I must admit a few months ago I was on the thought that the UK or GBP could suffer down to stagflation, but recent data is flipping that narrative now.
Let’s break down 4 reasons why I like GBP longs.
1. Strong economic data
The UK economy data has been surprising to the upside, and it’s not just one or two indicators coming in stronger.
Some of the key economic indicators outperforming include:
GDP Growth has slowed but it’s not slowing as most forecasted. The previous month GDP came in at 0.5%, and was forecast to come in lower at 0.0%, however, we had a 0.2% print. So, not as bad as expected.
Retail Sales shocked to the upside by a substantial margin. Now retail sales have been flip flopping slightly, but today the number came in at 1.2%, beating forecasts of 0.3%. This tells us that consumers aren’t necessarily feeling the impacts of slower growth yet.
Inflation remains higher, CORE CPI y/y came in at 3.8% way higher than targets for 2-3%. This also shows us that demand is there, because prices aren’t coming out.
2. Hawkish Bank of England
The Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, however, recent inflation numbers surging higher begs the question why are they cutting at all? One of the main central bank mandates is price stability, yet the central bank seems to be struggling between picking up growth and slowing inflation pressures.
We even saw this in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) votes, the format of X-X-X tells us how the members vote. The first number is how many members wanted to increase rates, second is how many voted to decrease rates, and the third is how many members wanted to hold rates. The numbers came in at 0-7-2, telling us that two members wanted to leave rates unchanged. So, it wasn’t a unanimous vote at all.
3. Strength returning
The currency strength meter shows the GBP regaining its strength as it moved from +1 to +3 last week. This change brings the GBP back into the spotlight for me for long opportunities. This makes the GBP the 3rd strongest currency out of the G7.
When we look at the GBP/USD chart we can see that the price is now trading above the key 1.3400 resistance and the highs which formed in September 2024. A close above this level would signal further strength to come from a technical perspective.
4. Weakness in other economies
When trading the currency market, we deal in forex pairs, so we need to identify what currencies are getting weaker in order to find viable trading opportunities. Simply, we want to pair a strong vs a weak currency.
The weaker currencies I like include:
EUR
JPY
CHF
With risk sentiment improving witnessed by the positivity in global stock markets and other risk assets like Bitcoin, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc could become weaker. Euro weakness remains in the near term, and with upcoming trade negotiations in the US could become a sticky situation putting pressure on the Euro.
Final thoughts
With all these confluences put together from solid macroeconomic data surprises, a central bank turning a little more hawkish due to surging inflation, technical breakouts, the GBP is looking to offer some decent opportunities in my eyes.
SPONSOR
He’s already IPO’d once – this time’s different
Spencer Rascoff grew Zillow from seed to IPO. But everyday investors couldn’t join until then, missing early gains. So he did things differently with Pacaso. They’ve made $110M+ in gross profits disrupting a $1.3T market. And after reserving the Nasdaq ticker PCSO, you can join for $2.80/share until 5/29.
This is a paid advertisement for Pacaso’s Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.pacaso.com. Reserving a ticker symbol is not a guarantee that the company will go public. Listing on the NASDAQ is subject to approvals. Under Regulation A+, a company has the ability to change its share price by up to 20%, without requalifying the offering with the SEC.
NEWS
Tariff Countdown: Trump Delays 50% EU Hit
Call it a tactical pause or just another plot twist in the never-ending tariff saga.
President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the proposed 50% tariff on European Union goods, originally set to go live June 1, is now on hold until July 9, 2025. All because of a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asked for more time to "reach a good deal." Trump, in a rare tone of diplomacy, said it was his "privilege" to grant the extension.
Just last week, he was slamming the EU for being "difficult to deal with" and warning that talks were "going nowhere." Now? It’s handshakes over hostility, at least for the next 39 days.
Here’s What Traders Should Know:
1. The 50% Tariff Threat Isn’t Gone It’s Delayed
This is not a pivot. Trump hasn’t softened, he’s just stalling. That 50% threat is still alive and ticking. And markets now have a new macro countdown. Sectors with EU exposure, autos, luxury goods, agriculture, just bought time, but the pressure isn’t off.
2. EU Asked for Time, But No Deal Yet
Von der Leyen called the chat "good," and emphasized the strength of the U.S.-EU trade relationship. But let’s be real: there’s no new framework, no handshake, and definitely no deal. The clock’s ticking, and Brussels knows it.
3. Trump’s Playbook = Chaos, Then Curveball
This isn’t his first tariff shuffle. First it was 20%. Then 10% for 90 days. Now he wants 50%. This kind of volatility is classic Trump-era geopolitics, and if you’ve been trading through it, you already know: every headline is a positioning risk.
4. Markets Will Breathe Briefly
Short-term relief? Maybe. But stocks tied to EU trade, and EUR/USD, will stay twitchy. There’s no clean bullish case unless we get real progress. Otherwise, every Trump post between now and July 9 becomes a macro event.
5. July 9 = Your New Risk Marker
Circle it. Highlight it. Annotate it. Because if no deal lands, this date has teeth. Volatility will reload fast. Expect cautious positioning and tight stops as we approach. Nobody wants to get caught fading Trump when he’s on a tariff warpath.
What’s the Takeaway Here?
This wasn’t a fix, it was a delay. The bomb is still under the table, just with a new timer.
Watch EUR pairs, U.S. industrials, gold, and any sector with EU exposure. This isn't just about trade, it's about tone, and tone can flip fast. Especially when Truth Social’s your main policy feed.
And here’s something to look forward to, July 9 is the new D-Day. And if nothing changes, we’re trading headlines, not fundamentals. Stay cautious, stay skeptical, and don’t let the calm fool you, this story’s far from over.
WATCH
“Feel The Market”
GAMES
Trading Quiz
I’m British by birth, but globally priced,
Tied to old empires and modern fights.
From Brexit to BoE I swing and sway,
One tweet can ruin my whole day.
👉 What asset am I?
GET TO IT
🦖 Get funded as a trader with up to $4,000,000.*
🦖 Check out these recommended trading tools.
🦖 Do a super quick challenge that will have missive impacts on your results.
🦖 Watch Professional Traders trade live in London
🦖 Understand how Market Makers work.
ANSWER
Answer: GBP