Good morning. Around 12% of all gold ever mined sits inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vault, stored for central banks from around the world, roughly 497,000 gold bars deep underground.
It’s the world’s largest known stash of gold… and none of it actually belongs to the U.S. government.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
MARKET ANALYSIS
Gold Just Won’t Quit
Everyone’s favorite metal keeps rewriting history, now pushing past $4,150 with $4,200 in sight.
And honestly, who’s surprised anymore?
Gold’s not just shining; it’s stealing the show. From political chaos to trade drama, everything that could boost safe-haven demand seems to be happening all at once.
Here’s what you need to know:
1. When Fear Wins, Gold Wins
Markets are jittery and that’s putting it mildly.
The U.S. government shutdown drags into its third week, France is dealing with political instability, and Japan’s pro-stimulus push is shaking up the yen.
Add Trump’s latest trade threat, cutting cooking oil imports from China, and you’ve got global tension at every corner.
Naturally, traders are flocking to safety. Gold has become the market’s comfort blanket again, holding strong above $4,150 and showing no real signs of exhaustion. Even the IMF chimed in this week, warning that renewed trade tensions could dent global growth.
When fear dominates, gold thrives and right now, the fear trade is alive and well.
2. The Fed Is Still Playing It Safe
The Fed’s latest minutes confirmed what traders already sensed policymakers are divided, but leaning dovish.
Most now expect two more rate cuts this year, while one new Fed member pushed for an even deeper 0.50% move.
That’s all gold needs to keep its footing. A softer Fed means a softer dollar, and with the greenback retreating from recent highs, gold’s momentum has only strengthened.
Even Jerome Powell’s cautious tone hinted that further easing is still on the table if the labor market shows more weakness.
3. The Chart Says It All
Technically, gold’s structure is textbook bullish.
Price has now tapped $4,187, holding just shy of the psychological $4,200 resistance, a major milestone and magnet for breakout traders.
Looking at the chart, you can see how clean the uptrend has been since late August a series of step-like consolidations (boxed zones), each one breaking higher before forming the next base.
The 50-day moving average (blue line) continues to slope upward with strong momentum, while the 200-day (orange line) sits far below, confirming trend strength.
Unless we see a decisive drop below $4,060–$4,050, this remains a “buy-the-dip” market.
A clean breakout above $4,200 could open the door to $4,300 and beyond, as momentum traders pile in and shorts get squeezed.
My Takeaway
While everyone’s arguing about when the Fed cuts again, gold is quietly doing what it does best, rising when confidence falls.
This isn’t a hype move; it’s a reflection of how fragile global sentiment feels right now.
If you’ve been trading gold lately, you know the energy each dip gets bought, each high gets retested, and every headline adds fuel to the rally.
It’s rare to see such clean momentum across both fundamentals and technicals… but right now, gold just won’t quit.
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TRADER INSIGHTS
As Oil Slips, Watch These Two FX Pairs Closely
Canada is a textbook example of a resource-reliant developed economy. Around 10% of its nominal GDP is tied to the oil and gas sector, and oil is still the country’s top export.
But the Canadian economy is looking vulnerable:
Unemployment has been rising steadily, with the latest data showing the labour market cooling more than expected.
GDP growth is stagnating.
The Bank of Canada remains cautious, and markets have increasingly priced in rate cuts in early 2026.
If oil weakens further, the Canadian economy has fewer cushions to absorb the shock.
This makes CAD more susceptible to downside moves, especially against currencies that benefit from lower energy prices or risk-off environments (e.g., JPY or USD).
Norway: Oil Exposure Without the Cushion
Norway, while boasting one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world, still has a currency that is highly sensitive to oil fluctuations.
Here's why:
The NOK is tightly correlated with Brent crude, Norway’s key export.
Recent weakness in oil prices (due to OPEC+ production increases and global demand concerns) has already started dragging the NOK lower.
While the Norges Bank has hiked aggressively, inflation is falling, and policy tightening may be near its peak.
Unlike the USD or EUR, which benefit from broader macro drivers, NOK’s strength tends to rise and fall with crude.
How I’m Approaching It
Right now, I’m keeping an eye on:
CADJPY for potential breakdowns if oil continues to decline and risk sentiment turns.
The price is currently testing the weekly highs of 108.75. A hold here could lead to further declines towards the trendline support.
EURNOK could be one to watch once the ECB data picks up again.
The price here is breaking above the 50 day moving average and previous swing highs. A rally could form here towards the range highs of 12.0000.
For us using the oil market we can find opportunities using key market correlations.
WATCH
I Day Traded My Way from Australia’s Worst to Best Hotel
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (EUR/USD)
EURUSD is trading near 1.1620, struggling after slipping below its trendline and the 1.1640 resistance. The pair stays below the 50-day but above the 200-day SMA, showing short-term weakness within a broader uptrend. As long as EURUSD remains under 1.1640–1.1690, bears stay in control. A drop below 1.1550 could extend losses toward 1.1400, while a move above 1.1690 would revive bullish momentum toward 1.1900.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“FOMO is the fastest way to donate your money to the market.” When you chase moves that have already happened, you’re trading emotion, not strategy. The next opportunity always comes but only traders who wait for it are still around to take it.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 15, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Stringer
Oil prices fell further, hitting new five-month lows, as the International Energy Agency warned of an impending global supply glut of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, even as U.S.–China trade tensions risk dampening demand. (source:reuters)
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ANSWER
Answer: CPI (Consumer Price Index)