Good Morning. A Canadian once tried to pay his taxes with a rock. In 1954, a prospector offered the government a strange black rock as payment. Turns out, it was uraninite, packed with uranium.

The rock launched Canada’s uranium boom, and yes… it more than covered his tax bill.

-Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor, Patrick Lewis

MARKETS

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Market Analysis

Hedge Funds Are Dumping the Canadian Dollar, Should We?

Hedge funds have ramped up short positions on the Canadian dollar after reaching extreme long positions. 

The USD/CAD prices fell below the 1.3800 handle again but could positioning suggest this could turn? 

On the 28th April hedge funds reached an extreme long position, similar to the levels seen back in September 2024. Typically when the hedge funds reach an extreme we can often see a reversal or repositioning in their activity. 

In this case we had an initial reversal of CAD futures (USD/CAD long) but this didn’t last very long. 

However, now we have some divergence going on. What we usually see is the hedge funds following price action as they are trend followers, but we have hedge funds adding to their short positions (CAD futures lower = USD/CAD higher) and decreasing long positions. 

Hedge funds increased short positions by 21,084 and decreased long positions by -698, meaning a net short position of 21,705. That is the highest out of all the G10 currencies. 

Why would they do this

A number of reasons could contribute to the positioning but the main factors would include:

• Canada vs US trade negotiations. We know US President Donald Trump and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney do not necessarily see eye to eye, so I expect to see some back and forth between the two countries when it comes down to trade tariff deals. 

• Oil prices remain subdued. As an oil producing nation, Canada tends to benefit from higher oil prices, but with oil trading towards or even below $60.00 a barrel, it could keep hedge funds on the sell side for now. 

• Bank of Canada has been slashing rates and unemployment rates remain high with the last reading seeing rates reach 6.9%.

On the other hand there are some positives within the Canadian economy: 

• Canada’s stock market TSX has just reached a new all time high, this was after Trump paused 50% tariffs on the EU after announcing them on Friday. This has given Canadians or at least Canadian stocks something to grab onto as Trump is open to negotiation. 

• Canada’s CPI remains higher, especially core which could suggest that the Bank of Canada will slow down the pace of cutting in the near future. 

• USD weakness is still in place, and if this continues then it’s likely that USD/CAD prices may move lower too. 

Seasonal pattern

Interestingly the market has been following a seasonal pattern, 2025 so far has moved in line with a 22 year average. In the middle of may we typically see USD/CAD prices fall until the 10th June, and 2025 so far is following this average. 

This offers an interesting hedge to the outlook that hedge funds are looking at right now. 

Final Thoughts

Well, it seems the hedge funds are happy to sell Canadian dollar futures right now, whether that’s in preparation for trade tariff negotiations or perhaps they see weakness from the Canadian economy coming. What’s interesting is that we have a slight divergence between their positioning and current prices. 

We will have to wait and see if this plays out, for now I am on the CAD short side, but this could change if the narrative switches.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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NEWS

Tariff Countdown: Trump Delays 50% EU Hit

The markets have been steadily heating up for weeks now, with Bitcoin leading the charge in what could be the early stages of a major bull run. Over the past few weeks, BTC has shown remarkable resilience, breaking through key resistance levels and igniting optimism among investors across the board. Institutional interest continues to grow at a steady pace, regulatory clarity within the U.S. continues to improve, and retail traders are getting more and more enthusiastic each day. While Bitcoin holders celebrate, however, supporters of the TRUMP memecoin recently experienced a night that was anything but bullish, or even bearish. Instead, it was just plain bad.

Now usually I make a point not to report on memecoins because they are by their very nature: garbage. But the events that unfolded at Trump’s Virigina golf club were just too ridiculous to pass up:

Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump hosted an exclusive dinner for top holders of the TRUMP memecoin at his Virginia golf club. The event, which required attendees to hold significant amounts of the token to even get invited, was meant to be a glamorous affair celebrating crypto’s rising influence in politics. Instead, guests were treated to what one attendee called "the worst food I’ve ever had at a Trump property." That sentence indicates that that particular guest has eaten a Trump-served meal before too… which is interesting.

Nicholas Pinto, a social media personality who purchased over $300,000 worth of TRUMP tokens to secure his spot, didn’t hold back in his criticism. "It was trash," he said of the filet mignon served, comparing it to "Walmart steak." The three-course meal, which included a salad, pan-seared halibut, and a lava cake dessert, left many attendees unimpressed. "The only good thing was bread and butter," Pinto remarked, adding that he left the event still hungry. Continue Reading…

-Patrick Lewis

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Answer: Crude Oil