Good morning. The global foreign exchange market trades over $7.5 trillion a day, that’s more than the value of Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon combined changing hands daily.

It’s the only market that never sleeps… just naps between sessions.

-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Last week’s volatility might’ve calmed, but the macro storm isn’t over.

We’re heading into a data-packed week, where inflation reports from Canada, the U.K., and the U.S. are lining up to decide where currencies swing next.

This one could set the tone for USD/CAD all week.

Markets expect inflation to stay flat at 3.0% y/y, while core prices hover around 0.3% m/m. A softer read would build the case for a BoC pause, possibly extending CAD weakness that’s already visible on the charts.

But here’s the twist, oil prices have started showing signs of life again, and that could cushion the loonie. If CPI surprises higher, it may spark a short-lived CAD rebound before global risk sentiment pulls it back down.

The Bank of England is under pressure to prove it still has control over inflation.

Forecasts sit at 4.0% y/y, slightly higher than before, but traders are already betting the BOE’s tightening cycle is basically done.

Any upside surprise could lift GBP/USD short term, but I’ll be watching how quickly that fades, especially if U.S. CPI (on Friday) prints hotter. Volatility on pound pairs tends to spike midweek, so I’ll be extra careful around GBP/JPY and EUR/GBP.

This is the big one.

The Fed may be leaning dovish lately, but another hot inflation print could change the tone fast. Headline CPI is expected at 0.4% m/m, and if it holds, it’ll reinforce the “sticky inflation” story that’s been haunting the Fed all year.

Pair that with the PMI data due the same day, both services and manufacturing and you get a perfect setup for a late-week USD volatility spike across all majors.

Last week’s gold surge and yen recovery proved one thing traders are getting defensive.

This week’s inflation reports could easily reset those moves. Personally, I’m watching USD/CAD for a CPI-driven fakeout, GBP/USD for midweek overreaction, and EUR/USD for Friday’s whiplash.

Volatility is looking to be sharp this week, but this time it’s data-driven, not headlines.

-Shaun A

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FOREX

There seems to be little change to the currency strength meter this week, but it tells us that there’s some trending markets around that we can take advantage of.

Last week data was light, the US government shutdown has continued and Fed Chair Powell revitalised the need to cut rates.

The narrative for me remains in the risk sentiment. 

Having a look at the fear and greed index on CNN it shows the market is still fearful, however it has moved out of the “Extreme Fear” category. If however we see an increase in trade tensions between Trump and China it could bring us right back into it.

That being said let’s take a look at what moved last week.

My currency strength meter highlights these currencies as the strongest as of last week:

Looking at the opposite side of the strength meter now, these are the weakest of last week:

Based off of the above these are the currency pairs on my trading watchlist:

-Jonathan Kibbler

WATCH

CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (XAU/USD)

DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET

TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 20, 2025)

Asian stock markets surged after Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 2.8% following the formation of a new ruling-party coalition that signals likely stimulus-friendly policy ahead. China’s Q3 GDP also came in at 4.8% year-on-year, better than many had feared, helping to lift sentiment across the region. (source:reuters)

GAMES

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ANSWER

Answer: Dogecoin $DOGE.X ( ▲ 1.42% )