Good morning. The NFP report is so market-moving that in the 1980s and 90s, some traders literally camped outside government offices to get the print seconds before others.
Today it’s locked down and released to the world at the same time, but the instant volatility hasn’t changed a bit.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
NEWS
Markets on Edge as NFP Gets Pushed Back
The U.S. government shutdown has shaken up the calendar, and the big Non-Farm Payrolls report didn’t make the cut. For us traders, this is huge. NFP is one of the most market-moving events each month, and without it, volatility is running on uncertainty.
Here's what you need to know:
1. NFP Delay Creates a Void
The jobs report was supposed to land today, Friday, October 3, but the shutdown has pushed it back. That means traders don’t get the usual labor-market read to guide them.
Instead, the market is leaning on smaller releases like the Challenger layoffs report, which showed job cuts falling to 54,000 in September from almost 86,000 in August. That drop is encouraging, but without the official payrolls, the picture feels incomplete. And when data goes dark, price action does the talking.
2. Gold Hovers Near $3,900
Gold has become the go-to safety play. After testing $3,897, it’s holding just below the $3,900 ceiling. The chart still screams bullish each pullback has been met with dip-buying.
Key support sits at $3,835, and the bigger floor is closer to $3,635. Unless the Fed suddenly turns hawkish, gold looks more likely to grind higher than give up its gains.
3. Oil Balances at $61
Crude oil is telling a different story. WTI has been struggling to keep momentum, bouncing around $61 after weeks of weakness. The level is key: lose it, and $60 becomes the next stop fast. On the upside, resistance is stacked near $65, but buyers don’t seem ready to step in yet. Supply risks are still in play, but growth concerns are weighing heavier right now.
My Takeaway
With NFP delayed, traders are navigating without their main compass. That makes markets more sensitive to headlines, Fed chatter, and technical levels. Gold looks steady as the safe-haven play, while oil is clinging to support. The data may be missing, but volatility is alive and well.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Why You Need Structure in Trading
Retail traders are a drop in the ocean compared to institutions. But we can compete by using structure to stay objective in a subjective world.
❝ You’re not here to predict. You’re here to react with process. ❞
This was something I was taught by one of my mentors.
The 10-Friends Rule (Yes, Really)
Imagine you ask 10 friends: Is it raining outside?
You ask them all the same structured question with controlled answers — Yes, No, or Don’t Know.
Let’s say:
6 say Yes
3 say Don’t Know
1 says NoYou now have clarity. That’s a 60% chance it’s raining outside.
This is exactly how you should approach markets.
Ask consistent questions → Get meaningful answers → Make decisions with data.
Use a Structured Methodology for Every Trade
Here are some examples of questions that you can ask every time:
Is the higher time frame in an up or down trend? Yes/No
Is the market in a primary or secondary phase? Primary/Secondary
Is there a sentiment or macro narrative? Sentiment/Macro
These are just some we can ask. Go through your strategy and come up with some that fit your style.
Why This Changes Everything
Once you build structure into your approach:
You stop obsessing over outcomes
Wins and losses become data points
You improve with every trade, not just the profitable ones
You become more disciplined, less reactive, and ultimately more consistent.
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (NZD/JPY)
NZD/JPY is hovering near 85.90 after bouncing slightly from support around 85.75, but the broader structure shows lower highs capped by a descending trendline. The pair remains below its key moving averages, keeping the pressure tilted to the downside. A break under 85.75 could trigger a move toward 84.90 and potentially 80.90, while reclaiming 86.90 resistance would be needed to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“Trading doesn’t reward intensity, it rewards consistency.” Big bursts of effort won’t save you if your habits are reckless but steady, disciplined execution day after day is what builds lasting results.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 3, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Stringer
Oil prices are on track for their steepest weekly loss in months as oversupply concerns mount and OPEC+ considers boosting production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November. Brent lost ~8% this week, while WTI is down ~7.3%. (source: reuters)
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
I’m not a setup, but I lure you in,
Promising gains while hiding sin.
Discipline fades when I appear,
One bad chase, and losses near.
What Am I?
GET TO IT
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ANSWER
Answer: Greed