Good morning. The shortest trading day ever on the NYSE lasted just 30 minutes, it closed early on July 3rd, 1962, because traders wanted to beat holiday traffic.

Proof that sometimes, even Wall Street clocks out early for a long weekend.

-Pat Lewis, Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

MARKET ANALYSIS

The crypto markets once again showed their maturity, as they got caught up in the crossfire this weekend as U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities sent shockwaves through risk assets.

No longer immune to the kind of real world events that send stock markets tumbling, the crypto market had one of the most volatile trading sessions in recent months, with liquidations surpassing $1 billion across exchanges as prices tumbled. All this occurred within hours of the U.S. military escalation. Users on Reddit and X cried outrage at President Trump, who campaigned not only on being an anti-war President, but on being “the most Pro-Crypto President you will ever see”.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 before finding some footing around $102,600, marking its lowest level since early June. Ethereum fared even worse, crashing to prices not seen since May and flirting with the psychologically important $2,200 support level. Altcoins took the hardest hits, with Solana's SOL token dropping 8% and smaller caps like Aptos and Celestia plunging over 9% as traders rushed for the exits.

The sell-off wasn't isolated to crypto. Traditional markets also flashed red as investors digested the news of coordinated U.S.-Israel strikes targeting three Iranian nuclear sites. President Trump declared the operation successful, while Iranian leaders vowed retaliation, setting the stage for potential further escalation. This classic "risk-off" environment saw money flow into safe havens like gold and the U.S. dollar, while speculative assets across the board took a beating.

Now there’s two major factors that explain crypto's outsized reaction:

First, the immediate market psychology. Geopolitical shocks historically trigger flight from risk assets, and this weekend proved no exception. The shadow of 2022's Ukraine invasion, when Bitcoin dropped 8% in a single day, loomed large in trader memories. With Middle East tensions now reaching new heights, many chose to reduce exposure rather than wait for further developments.

Second, and potentially more concerning for crypto's medium-term outlook, is the oil-inflation connection. Brent crude has already surged 32% from its yearly lows, and any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz (where 20% of global oil supply transits) could send prices skyrocketing further. This matters because energy costs feed directly into inflation metrics, exactly what the Federal Reserve has been trying to tame. With last week's FOMC meeting already signaling fewer rate cuts than markets hoped for, the prospect of resurgent inflation could keep monetary policy tight for longer.

The price drops triggered a cascade of forced selling:

Interestingly, not everyone lost! Some nimble traders capitalized on the volatility, but for most, the weekend served as a brutal reminder of crypto's sensitivity to global macro shocks.

Prediction markets currently price in 68% odds of Bitcoin testing $95,000 before recovering, reflecting widespread caution. It’s particularly difficult to predict exactly where things go from here, but experts are focussed on three things:

While crypto venture funding has shown surprising resilience (a record $3.4 billion raised in Q2), this weekend proved that when geopolitical tensions flare, even the most bullish crypto narratives take a backseat to risk management. As one veteran trader put it: "In moments like these, surviving is more important than thriving." The coming days will test whether this dip becomes a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.

This episode underscores crypto's maturation, for better and worse. The days when Bitcoin traded in isolation are long gone; today, it reacts to Fed policy, geopolitical risk, and oil markets just like other risk assets. While decentralization remains the ethos, price action increasingly mirrors traditional finance's rhythms. For traders, that means expanding their watchlists beyond blockchain metrics to include the same geopolitical and macroeconomic factors that move stocks and commodities.

-Pat Lewis

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TRADER INSIGHTS

Oil traders are strapping in as the Middle East lights up again, this time with the U.S. stepping straight into the Iran-Israel conflict.

That’s the kind of headline that makes crude charts jump, and guess what? Brent and WTI both popped over 2% overnight.

With Tehran vowing “all options” to defend itself after U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, we’re not just trading barrels anymore, we’re trading geopolitical nerves.

After weeks of airstrikes between Israel and Iran, the U.S. has now bombed Iranian nuclear sites. Iran’s foreign minister warned the country could hit back in any way it wants. When a key OPEC producer talks escalation, traders listen, and hedge.

Brent is back near $78.50, WTI over $75.20, but the real action could be yet to come if missiles keep flying.

Iran’s parliament just greenlit a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, an oil artery moving 20 million barrels daily. Even a minor scuffle there can send tankers scrambling and crude prices spiking.

Morgan Stanley Analysts say a full shutdown could push oil back to 2022 levels, or higher. Some call $100 conservative if this drags on for weeks. The last two Gulf Wars didn’t even fully close Hormuz. This time? No one’s betting against chaos.

Remember the Ukraine war shock in 2022? Traders do, and they see a replay on the horizon. JPMorgan says regime change or heavy conflict in Iran would hit supply hard and fast.

Energy experts warn that replacing that lost oil is no overnight fix. Every missile risk adds a dollar to the barrel.

The CBOE Oil Volatility Index is back where it was when Russia stormed into Ukraine. Uncertainty loves company, and oil traders thrive on panic hedges.

Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, says it bluntly: “This time feels different.” And he’s not alone.

Ironically, neither side wants oil itself blown to bits, yet. Iran and Israel have avoided direct hits on oil infrastructure so far, and U.S. allies would push hard to keep tankers moving.

Veteran traders say threats to close Hormuz are routine bluff cards, but with missiles flying and a nuclear site bombed, it’s not a joke trade this time.

Geopolitics just hijacked the oil market’s summer story. As long as Iran-Israel tension stays hot, and the U.S. stays in, oil traders won’t dare fade the risk.

Keep watch on Hormuz headlines. If tankers stop, $100 oil could look cheap in hindsight.

-Shaun A

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Answer: Nasdaq $NDX ( ▲ 1.88% )