Good Morning. If you had bought just $100 of Apple stock during its IPO in 1980... you'd be sitting on over $300,000 today (with dividends reinvested). That $100 investment would’ve bought you 4.54 shares at $22 each… which, after stock splits, would now equal about 1,260 shares.
Moral of the story: sometimes diamond hands really do win.
-Shaun A, Jordon Mellor, Patrick Lewis
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
NEWS
Oil Spikes After Israel Hits Iran
Traders got hit with a geopolitical haymaker Thursday night.
Crude oil surged over 9%, marking its biggest single-day move in nearly five years after Israel launched a surprise military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ripped higher to $74.64, while Brent soared to $75.79 per barrel. That’s not just a pop, that’s a warning flare to every energy trader on the planet.
So, what exactly happened? And how much of this rally is panic, premium, or something more lasting?
Here’s what you should know:
1. The Strike Heard Around the Markets
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the military operation, stating that it targeted Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, key nuclear scientists, and ballistic missile assets. His message was clear: "This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat."
This wasn’t a symbolic move, it was direct, targeted, and far-reaching. Markets responded accordingly.
2. No U.S. Backing, But Plenty of Fallout
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made it clear: the U.S. had no hand in the strikes. "Our top priority is protecting American forces in the region," he said. Still, the optics are messy. Iran might not split hairs when retaliating.
Israel has since declared a special state of emergency. Tensions are sky-high as Iran weighs its next move. Iranian media reported the death of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami in the strikes, an escalation flashpoint if confirmed.
3. What Traders Are Pricing In Now
The oil rally isn’t just about the damage done. It’s about the risk of what’s coming next. As Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates puts it, any retaliation from Iran targeting U.S. or Israeli interests could lead to a supply shock. And in a tight oil market, even a small disruption sends prices vertical.
Iran’s position in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes, makes this more than a Middle Eastern conflict. It's a global energy security threat.
4. The Political Undercurrent
Here’s where it gets tricky. Trump’s administration has been riding the narrative of low fuel prices as a political win. An oil price surge is bad optics in an election year. If Iran retaliates and energy prices spiral, that political pressure could weigh on future U.S. actions, or lack thereof.
As Lipow bluntly put it: "Iran knows full well that President Donald Trump is focused on lower energy prices."
5. This Isn’t Just Noise, It’s a Shift
Markets have been lulled into ignoring geopolitical risk. But this move by Israel, and the potential retaliatory dominoes it could trigger, just re-priced the risk premium overnight.
Saul Kavonic from MST Marquee summed it up best: this is a "wake-up call." The possibility of escalation is real. If Iran hits back and the U.S. gets pulled in, we’re no longer talking about sentiment moves,we’re talking about structural shocks.
Here’s the takeaway
This isn’t your typical headline-driven pump and dump. The oil spike is grounded in real, developing risk. Us traders should keep eyes locked on Middle East headlines and watch volume for signs of real positioning.
In this kind of market, optionality beats prediction. Manage exposure, hedge with intent, and remember: it only takes one spark to ignite a breakout.
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MARKET ANALYSIS
GENIUS Act could introduce ‘a billion people to crypto’
The U.S. Senate took a historic step this week toward establishing the country's first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, advancing legislation that the analysts and experts believe could serve as the foundation for bringing cryptocurrency into mainstream financial systems. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025 Act, known as the GENIUS Act, cleared a key procedural hurdle with bipartisan support, setting the stage for what could become one of the most significant developments in crypto adoption since Bitcoin's creation. While other countries within the UK and Europe already have clear frameworks to guide cryptocurrency, the U.S. has lagged behind. But now, the world's largest economy is set to join the action in a big new way.
At its core, the GENIUS Act establishes clear rules for dollar-pegged stablecoins, requiring issuers to maintain one-to-one reserves in highly liquid assets like U.S. Treasuries while subjecting them to oversight by either federal or state regulators. This regulatory clarity comes after years of uncertainty that saw major financial institutions hesitate to fully embrace stablecoin technology despite its growing use in global payments and decentralized finance.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune framed the legislation as critical infrastructure for financial innovation:
"We want to bring cryptocurrency into the mainstream, and the GENIUS Act will help us do that."
The bill's momentum reflects a rare moment of political alignment on crypto policy, with President Trump signaling his intent to sign the legislation once it passes Congress. However, the path hasn't been entirely smooth. Progressive Democrats led by Senator Elizabeth Warren have raised concerns about potential loopholes that could enable money laundering, pointing to recent cases where stablecoins were allegedly used to move hundreds of millions in illicit funds.
Senator Warren, long time crypto critic warned:
"The GENIUS Act includes a massive loophole that allows Tether to evade basic safeguards"
But her objections didn’t do much to derail the bill's advance thanks to support from crypto-friendly Democrats including Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner.
Industry analysts view the legislation as potentially transformative. Daren Matsuoka of Andreessen Horowitz's crypto division noted that stablecoins already process staggering transaction volumes, approximately $33 trillion annually, eclipsing PayPal's throughput and approaching the scale of traditional ACH bank transfers:
"Stablecoins now present what I believe is the first credible opportunity to onboard a billion people into crypto" - Matsuoka said, highlighting how regulated dollar-pegged tokens could bridge the gap between conventional finance and blockchain applications.
Not the actual U.S. Senate
The corporate world appears ready to embrace this new framework. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has publicly stated his institution would issue its own stablecoin once regulations are in place, comparing it to operating a money market fund. Meanwhile, Uber's Dara Khosrowshahi revealed the company is exploring stablecoins to streamline international payments, signaling how major tech firms view crypto as integral to future financial infrastructure.
The market has responded enthusiastically to these developments. Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock price soar nearly 250% following its NYSE debut, the most explosive IPO performance since 1980. This investor fervor underscores growing recognition that stablecoins may represent crypto's "killer app" for real-world use, particularly if the GENIUS Act provides the regulatory certainty needed for institutional participation at scale.
As the bill moves toward final passage, its implications extend far beyond technical compliance requirements. By creating a viable on-ramp for traditional financial players while maintaining consumer protections, the GENIUS Act could fundamentally alter how digital assets integrate with global economic systems, potentially making dollar-backed stablecoins as ubiquitous as credit cards for everyday transactions while opening new avenues for financial inclusion worldwide.
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