Good morning. In 2007, oil traded above $147 a barrel, its highest price ever, driven by booming demand and geopolitical tensions. Within six months, it crashed below $40 during the global financial crisis.

Markets can climb for years… and still fall faster than you can say “trend reversal.”

-Jonathan Kibbler, Shaun A, Jordon Mellor

MARKETS

Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.

TRADER INSIGHTS

The Bank of England surprised no one by cutting interest rates by 25bps this week, bringing the base rate down to 4.00%. But what caught traders off guard was the GBP’s reaction. Instead of falling, it rebounded.

That’s not what we expected and it’s exactly why retail traders should be paying attention right now.

Retail traders often expect a currency to weaken after a rate cut. That’s the textbook response. But this time, GBP/USD jumped higher, breaking back above 1.3400, largely because:

That shift in expectations is what gave GBP support.

Bottom line: Without better data, GBP/USD could chop sideways. But if inflation holds or surprises to the upside, we may see a clean break higher.

-Jonathan Kibbler

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NEWS

Stephen Miran’s nomination isn’t just a bureaucratic shuffle it’s a potential accelerant for Trump’s push toward deeper rate cuts and a softer U.S. dollar.

The White House announced Thursday that Miran, current chair of the Council of Economic Advisors and a vocal Fed critic, will step into the seat vacated by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, whose resignation takes effect Friday.

Miran’s appointment runs until January 31, 2026, but Trump made it clear this could be a caretaker move before selecting a long-term pick, possibly one of his leading candidates for Fed chair once Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. That means Miran’s short-term influence could be strategic: setting the tone for monetary policy debates ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where markets already see a strong chance of the first rate cut since December 2024.

1. Miran’s Policy Lean Is Pro-Cuts and Pro-Dollar Weakness

Miran has criticized the Fed’s post-COVID stimulus as overdone and is an architect of the “Mar-A-Lago Accord,” which openly advocates dollar devaluation to improve the U.S. current account balance. For us traders, this means his voice on the Fed Board could align with Trump’s aggressive easing and weaker-dollar agenda, both bullish for gold and potentially supportive for risk assets.

2. A Step Toward a Shadow Chair Strategy

Trump has floated the idea of appointing a “shadow chair” someone on the Board who actively challenges Powell’s policy stance. Miran’s appointment could be the first move in that playbook, especially given his history of dissenting economic views and willingness to publicly challenge orthodoxy.

3. Senate Confirmation Timing Gives Markets a Window

The Senate won’t reconvene until September, meaning Miran’s confirmation vote is weeks away. Traders have time to price in the political risk but the closer we get to the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting, the more markets may start factoring in the impact of a pro-cuts voice on the Board.

4. Potential Ripple Effects on USD, Bonds, and Commodities

A successful nomination could tilt market expectations toward faster and steeper rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar and Treasury yields. For commodities, especially gold and silver, that’s a supportive macro backdrop. Oil could also benefit from the inflationary impulse of a weaker currency.

This isn’t just about filling Kugler’s empty chair it’s about loading the Fed’s table with voices that echo Trump’s vision for cheaper money and a weaker dollar. For traders, that’s a potential macro pivot point. If Miran gets confirmed, the September FOMC could be the first test of whether Trump’s influence is already shifting the Fed’s center of gravity.

Trade accordingly: rate-sensitive plays, long metals, and weaker-dollar setups could start getting more attention, especially if Miran’s confirmation headlines start heating up into September.

-Shaun A

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