Good morning. In 2018, the U.S. stock market experienced the “Volmageddon”, a sudden spike in volatility that wiped out several volatility ETFs in a single day after the VIX doubled unexpectedly.
It was the day calm markets turned chaotic, reminding traders that low volatility never lasts forever.
-Shaun A, Jonathan Kibbler, Jordon Mellor
MARKETS
How’s your favorite today?
Prices supplied by Google Finance as of 4:00am ET - stock prices as of close. Here is what the prices mean.
TRADER INSIGHTS
Stop Trying to Predict Start Learning to Respond
If you’ve traded long enough, you’ve probably fallen into that trap, the need to know what’s coming next. I’ve been there too. Drawing lines, calling tops, guessing where price will “definitely” turn.
It feels smart… until the market humbles you again.
Prediction gives a false sense of control. It’s that comforting illusion that if you just analyze enough, you’ll always be one step ahead. But markets don’t reward who’s right they reward who adapts.
I used to obsess over being “early” catching reversals, calling bottoms, nailing turning points. Then I realized something: every time I tried to predict, I stopped listening. I was forcing the market to fit my script instead of responding to what it was actually saying.
Here’s What I Learned in the Process:
The best traders I know aren’t fortune-tellers, they’re great listeners.
They react to structure, volatility, and momentum in real time, not ego or guesses.
When you stop trying to predict, three things happen:
1. You See Clearer
You’re no longer blinded by bias. You stop marrying your bias to every candle and start observing flow instead. Every level, reaction, and fake-out starts to make more sense when you’re not defending a prediction.
2. You Trade Lighter
No more stress over being “wrong.” When your job shifts from “predicting” to “responding,” losses become information, not failure. You’ll start to enjoy trading again, because now you’re part of the rhythm, not fighting it.
3. You Finally Let the Market Lead
You realize the market doesn’t move because of your analysis. It moves because of liquidity, narrative, and timing. You’re just a participant in that dance and that’s okay.
My Takeaway
Trading got easier for me the day I stopped trying to win arguments with the market.
Now, I just show up, read the room, and respond.
Every candle tells a story, I just wait to see if it confirms or changes mine.
Less predicting. More listening. That’s where consistency lives.
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LEARN
Understanding Correlation in Forex (and When It Actually Matters)
If you’ve been around markets long enough, you’ve probably heard traders say:
“Gold and silver move together.”
“When USD goes up, stocks go down.”
“Oil and CAD are basically the same trade.”
That’s great, but often correlation isn’t constant, and understanding when it matters can be the difference between catching the move or not.
What Is Correlation (in Real Terms)?
Correlation simply measures how closely two markets move together.
A positive correlation means they move in the same direction (e.g. EUR/USD and GBP/USD).
A negative correlation means they move in opposite directions (e.g. USD/JPY and Gold, most of the time).
Sounds simple enough, but correlations shift depending on fundamentals, risk sentiment, and macro trends.
If you trade multiple pairs without paying attention to correlation, you might think you’re diversifying but in reality you’re trading the same action.
My Trade: Gold and Silver
When gold broke out last year I for one was not on the rally. My strategy didn’t give me any entries as it was pretty much a straight line move.
I thought to myself, if I can’t buy gold what can I buy?
Historically gold and silver move together and silver tends to lag gold, but it often follows.
Using the gold/silver ratio chart I could find strong entry points on silver.
When the gold/silver ratio hits a high point, we tend to see a bottom form in silver prices.
So by understanding correlation and this ratio I bought silver instead of gold.
I used correlation to form my idea, and the ratio to confirm some of my entries.
Common Correlations to Watch
Oil and the Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Canada is a major oil exporter.
When oil prices rise, CAD often strengthens because of higher export revenues.
When oil falls (like it is now), CAD tends to weaken.
If you can combine this with a macro backing then you could use the correlation to identify better opportunities.
Gold and AUD/USD (not working currently)
Australia exports gold, so AUD/USD tends to move in the same direction as gold.
This hasn’t been a thing since 2018. But before that the correlation lasted 10 years.
So it can be there but, this is a great example of checking first.
Stock Markets and USD/JPY
During “risk-on” periods (when traders are confident), USD/JPY tends to rise as money flows into equities and away from the safe-haven yen.
When fear spikes, the yen strengthens and USD/JPY falls, classic risk-off behavior.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD
These pairs are positively correlated because both are traded against the U.S. dollar.
If USD is strong, both typically fall.
If USD weakens, both usually rally.
The key? Don’t double your exposure unknowingly. If you’re long both, you’re effectively short the dollar twice.
Remember This
Correlation matters in two key situations:
When Managing Risk: If two trades are highly correlated, treat them as one position.
When Finding Confirmation: If your trade aligns with correlated assets (e.g. gold and silver both turning higher), it strengthens your bias.
But remember, correlations break down.
That’s usually a signal that something fundamental is shifting in the market.
WATCH
CHART BREAKDOWN OF THE DAY (NZD/USD)
NZDUSD trades around 0.5767, recovering from recent lows but still inside a broader downtrend. The pair faces resistance at 0.5820, with support holding at 0.5730 and 0.5690. As long as price stays below 0.5990, bears remain in control.
DAILY TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NUGGET
“React to evidence, not emotion.” The market doesn’t care how you feel about a setup, it only respects logic and timing. The moment you trade what you think should happen instead of what you see happening, you’ve already lost your edge.
TODAY’S MOST TRENDING MARKET NEWS (OCTOBER 30, 2025)
credits: REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
The Federal Reserve surprised markets by lowering its benchmark rate but simultaneously casting doubt on a further cut in December, creating fresh uncertainty for the dollar and interest-rate sensitive markets. (source:reuters)
GAMES
Trading Brain Training
I’m traded in ounces, stored in vaults,
A hedge when markets find their faults.
I glimmer bright when fear runs deep,
The richer the panic, the higher I leap.
What Am I?
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ANSWER
Answer: GOLD $XAUUSD ( 0.0% )